517
FXUS06 KWBC 011902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Thu October 01 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 07 - 11 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble model forecasts predict an amplified
but variable 500-hPa height pattern over the North America region during the
6-10 day period. The manual height blend is based on 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and
Canadian model 500-hPa height forecasts, weighting the ECMWF ensemble mean
greater due to recent model skill. The manual blend indicates an amplified
trough extending from the Alaska Peninsula into the North Pacific to the north
of Hawaii at the start of the forecast period. The trough is predicted to
retrogress across the eastern Aleutians and Bering Sea later in the period. A
broad ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the
western and central contiguous United States (CONUS) throughout the 6-10 day
period. A trough and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted
to extend southward into  parts of the northeastern CONUS at the start of the
6-10 day period, which quickly progresses eastward into the North Atlantic
later in the 6-10 day period.  Near normal 500-hPa heights are favored for the
Hawaiian islands in the manual blend.

Below normal temperatures are favored for far northwestern Mainland Alaska,
under a trough and consistent with most model temperature tools. Above normal
temperatures are favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and likely for
Southeast Alaska, under southerly flow ahead of the predicted trough. Above
normal temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS, under the predicted
ridge and above normal 500-hPa heights, supported by most of the dynamical
model temperature forecast tools, while near normal temperatures are favored
for parts of the East, under a predicted trough. Probabilities exceed 80
percent over most of the western CONUS and 90 percent over parts of Southern
California and Nevada, under the amplified ridge. Near normal temperatures are
favored for the far northwestern Hawaiian Islands, while above normal
temperatures are favored for the southeastern Hawaiian Islands, consistent with
an automated blend of temperature tools.

Above normal precipitation is favored for the Aleutian Islands, consistent with
the consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS precipitation forecasts. Above
normal precipitation is also favored for Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska,
under southerly flow ahead of the predicted trough. Elevated probabilities of
below normal precipitation are forecast for the northwestern CONUS, across the
Northern and Central Plains, and for most of the Midwest, under the predicted
ridge. Above normal precipitation is likely over portions of Maine under a
predicted trough. Above normal precipitation is likely for parts of
southeastern Texas and the Southeast, consistent with the consolidation anomaly
forecast. Probabilities exceed 60 percent for above normal precipitation for
the eastern Gulf Coast and northern Florida Peninsula, where predicted
precipitation anomalies are greatest in the consolidation. Above normal
precipitation is slightly favored for Hawaii, consistent with the consolidation
precipitation forecast tool.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
good agreement between model forecasts of the large-scale mid-level height
pattern, offset by a variable pattern during the period and differences in
temperature and precipitation tools in some areas.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 09 - 15 2026

The 8-14 day 500-hPa height forecasts from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian
models remain in relatively good agreement, despite a variable pattern. The
manual height blend for week 2 is based on the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian
model 500-hPa height forecasts, weighting the ECMWF ensemble mean greater due
to recent model skill. The predicted 500-hPa height pattern in the manual blend
for the 8-14 day period is similar to the predicted pattern for the 6-10 day
period with some evolution of the pattern. A negatively tilted and high
amplitude trough is predicted over the Bering Sea extending southeastward into
the North Pacific. All models predict an amplified ridge and positive 500-hPa
height anomalies over the western and central CONUS in week 2, with the
greatest positive 500-hPa height anomaly over the northern High Plains. The
manual blend predicts negative 500-hPa height anomalies over parts of the
northeastern CONUS and weak anomalies over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts in week
2, with some variations in the extent of negative 500-hPa height anomalies
throughout the period and some differences among model forecasts. Near normal
500-hPa heights are predicted over the Hawaiian islands.

Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for the far western and the
eastern Aleutian Islands, under negative 500-hPa height anomalies and
consistent with most model tools. Below normal temperatures are slightly
favored for parts of western Mainland Alaska, consistent with the operational
auto blend and the consolidation temperature forecast tools. Above normal
temperatures are favored for most of eastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast
Alaska, under southerly flow ahead of the predicted trough. The likelihood of
above normal temperatures remains high for most of the CONUS in week 2, under a
persistent ridge and above normal 500-hPa heights, consistent with a consensus
of dynamical model forecast tools. Near normal temperatures are favored for the
northeastern CONUS, under a weak trough. Above normal temperatures are favored
across the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with an automated blend of temperature
tools and supported by positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the
vicinity.

Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across the Aleutians in week 2,
consistent with the precipitation consolidation. Under southerly flow ahead of
the predicted trough, above normal precipitation is also favored across
Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska. Under a persistent ridge, below normal
precipitation is favored over most of the western CONUS, excluding far
northwestern Washington. Enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation
extend eastward across most of the Great Plains, excluding central and southern
Texas, across the Central and Upper Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and
parts of Pennsylvania and New York. Above normal precipitation is slightly
favored over portions of Maine under a predicted trough.  Above normal
precipitation is also favored for parts of the Gulf Coast, the Southeast, and
the southern Mid-Atlantic region, consistent with the precipitation
consolidation anomaly forecast. Probabilities exceed 50 percent for parts of
the Southeast, where precipitation signals are greatest. Near to slighly above
normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, consistent with a consensus of
calibrated precipitation forecasts.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
general agreement between model forecasts of the large-scale mid-level height
pattern, temperatures, and precipitation, offset by increasing uncertainty
related to an evolving forecast pattern.



FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
October 15.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20211011 - 20071001 - 20040922 - 20150918 - 20130928


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20051011 - 20211010 - 20230929 - 20240927 - 20040922


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 07 - 11 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 09 - 15 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

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