725
FXUS06 KWBC 171902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue June 17 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 27 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the
ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models. The resultant manual
blend features an amplified pattern with ridging over the North Pacific and
northern Alaska and weak troughing over the Bering Sea, deeper troughing over
the western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and strong ridging over much of the
eastern CONUS.

As a result of amplified troughing over the West Coast, below-normal
temperatures are favored over most of the western CONUS as well as western
portions of the Great Plains and along the Rio Grande Valley. Probabilities of
below-normal temperatures exceed 50% for portions of the Rockies,Great Basin,
and Southwest under the trough axis. Above-normal temperatures are strongly
favored east of the Mississippi, with probabilities exceeding 90% for portions
of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. with amplified ridging
forecast over the southeastern CONUS. Under predicted positive 500-hPa height
anomalies, above-normal temperatures are likely over northeastern Alaska, while
below-normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and much of southern
Alaska, consistent with the reforecast consolidation temperature tool.
Above-normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, with positive surrounding sea
surface temperature anomalies.

A strong Bermuda high is depicted in model ensembles throughout the forecast
period, resulting in a steady stream of Gulf moisture advecting into the Great
Plains and Southeast U.S., favoring above-normal precipitation for the middle
of the CONUS. Probabilities of above-normal precipitation are elevated (>50%)
over the Upper Mississippi Valley with support for the upper-level trough over
the West, and also across much of the Rio Grande Valley, Southwest, and
Southern Rockies (>50%), where models depict converging moist airmasses from
the Gulf to the east, and from the west as a result of tropical cyclone
activity in the Eastern Pacific. Below-normal precipitation is favored along
much of the East Coast, due to the strong Bermuda high offshore reducing
instability along the coast. Over Alaska, with persistent easterly flow at the
surface and as the upper-air pattern switches from ridging to troughing over
the course of the 6-10 day period, the odds tilt weakly towards above-normal
precipitation for most of the state, with slightly higher probabilities (>40%)
for the Eastern Interior. For the Hawaiian Islands, elevated odds (>50% for all
except the Big Island) of above-normal precipitation are favored, consistent
with the Hawaii CON and Autoblend.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very
good agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and
statistical tools is offset by differences between raw and bias-corrected, and
the reforecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - JUL 01, 2025

Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a somewhat progressive
and de-amplified 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period
across North America and the surrounding regions. Troughing along the West
Coast is significantly weaker during week-2, and positive height anomalies are
slightly weaker over the eastern CONUS, resulting in a somewhat more zonal flow
over North America. Weak troughing is favored to spread over the Bering Sea,
while ridging over the North Pacific weakens slightly.

Above-normal temperatures continue to be favored across most of the eastern
half of the CONUS in the week-2 period, under continued ridging and positive
500-hPa height anomalies. Probabilities are slightly weaker than the 6-10 day
period likely due to deamplification of the East Coast ridge but still exceed
70% for portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Weaker troughing over the western CONUS
leads to a quick erosion of the widespread below-normal temperatures favored in
the 6-10 day period west of the Continental Divide. In week-2 below-normal
temperatures are only weakly favored for the Desert Southwest and along the
West Coast, while near-normal temperatures become most likely for much of the
interior northwestern CONUS. In Alaska, a slight tilt towards above-normal
temperatures remains for the northern Mainland under continued positive 500-hPa
height anomalies, while below-normal temperatures become slightly more favored
(>40%) for southern and western portions of the state as the weak trough over
the Bering Sea moves slightly closer to the western coast. Hawaii continues to
lean towards above-normal temperatures with the exception of the Big Island
where near-normal temperatures are preferred, supported by the Hawaii CON.

Odds tilt towards above-normal precipitation for most of the CONUS due to
continued availability of tropical moisture from both the Gulf region as well
as the Eastern Pacific. Probabilities of above-normal precipitation are
slightly enhanced for portions of the Rio Grande Valley and Southwest, as well
as for much of the north-central CONUS where model ensembles indicate an
increased potential for convective weather. A weakly building trough over the
Bering Sea tilts the Alaskan Mainland towards above-normal precipitation, while
near-normal precipitation is most likely for most of Southeast Alaska.
Above-normal precipitation also continues to be weakly favored for the Hawaiian
Islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools is offset by weaker ensemble mean 500-hPa height anomalies over the
western half of the forecast domain and diverging solutions especially over
Alaska.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 19.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20000606 - 20010629 - 19880613 - 19780611 - 19900630


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20000605 - 20010630 - 19880613 - 20040606 - 19900629


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 23 - 27 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    N
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 25 - Jul 01, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$