927
FXUS06 KWBC 111911
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue August 11 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 17 - 21 2026

The 0Z GEFS, 0z ECENS, and the 0z CMCE forecasts are in fairly good agreement
on the predicted mean large-scale circulation pattern over North America for
the 6-10 day period. The manual height blend is based on these three ensemble
mean height forecasts, weighting the ECENS greater due to recent model skill.
The manual blend indicates negative 500-hPa height anomalies and/or mid-level
troughing centered over the southeastern Bering Sea, near the West Coast of the
Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and portions of the Northeast. Positive 500-hPa height
anomalies and/or mid-level ridging are dominant across the southcentral and
southeastern states, and northern, central, and eastern Alaska. A mid-level
ridge is forecast north of the Hawaiian Islands, with near to slightly above
normal heights over the Islands themselves.

Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the Four Corners region, the
Central and Southern Rockies, the Central and Southern Plains, all but far
northern parts of the Mississippi Valley, most of the Great Lakes region, Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and all but northernmost sections of the
Appalachians and Atlantic coastal plain. Maximum chances favoring above normal
temperatures range from 80-90 percent over the interior Central Gulf Coast
region, generally collocated with the highest mean heights. A small residual
area which slightly favors relative warmth is also indicated along the Canadian
border from Washington to central Montana. Relatively small areas of below
normal temperatures are slightly favored over northern New England in proximity
to a mid-level trough, and over portions of the Central Great Basin/eastern
California, as supported by ECENS and CMCE reforecast temperatures. Above
normal temperature chances are elevated across most of Alaska during the 6-10
day outlook period, based on mid-level ridging across the north, and southerly
flow on the eastern side of a nearby Bering Sea trough. Chances of above normal
temperatures peak at 70-80 percent over the eastern Interior of Alaska. Above
normal temperatures remain favored in Hawaii with above normal sea surface
temperatures and an increasing El Nino signature.

Above normal precipitation is favored across the West, associated with a trough
predicted along the West Coast and the influx of monsoon moisture from Mexico.
For approximately the northern third of the CONUS east of the Continental
Divide, wetter-than-normal conditions are slightly favored, associated with the
westerlies on the northern flank of the subtropical ridge to the south. This is
consistent with most of the available precipitation tools, and may be related
to passing shortwaves and MCS activity. Below normal precipitation is slightly
favored from the Southern Plains eastward to the South Atlantic coast beneath
subtropical ridging. In western Alaska, above normal precipitation is slightly
favored due to onshore flow in advance of a mid-level trough predicted over the
southeastern Bering Sea, and also over parts of Southeast Alaska. For Hawaii,
above normal precipitation is favored by the precipitation guidance, in
addition to the increasing possibility of a developing tropical cyclone
southeast of the islands, which is generally forecast to move towards the
archipelago during week-1. Hawaiian residents are encouraged to stay updated on
the latest information regarding this system, which at a minimum is likely to
bring ocean swells, high surf, and rip currents to the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 on a scale of 1-5,
based on reasonable agreement between the various height, temperature, and
precipitation tools and a relatively stable flow pattern at the 500-hPa level.
Areas of reduced confidence include widespread near normal temperatures favored
over western and north-central portions of the CONUS, and conflicting signals
among the precipitation tools regarding the extent and likelihood of below
normal precipitation over the southeastern CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 19 - 25 2026

The 0Z ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a fairly
consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period across
North America and the surrounding regions. The anomalous ridge over Northern
Alaska is predicted to weaken substantially during week-2 and shift eastward,
while the southeastern Bering Sea trough weakens. The major large-scale
circulation feature continues to be the broad, zonally-elongated ridge over
much of the southern two-thirds of the CONUS, which displaces the westerlies to
near the Canadian border. The GEFS and ECENS depict the maximum mean
geopotential height near the Arklatex during the 6-10 day period, and shift it
farther west as week-2 progresses. The associated subtropical ridge is expected
to result in prolonged, widespread extreme heat risk to much of the
southcentral and southeastern CONUS. Weak mid-level troughs are still forecast
near the West Coast and over portions of the Northeast. With regards to the
Northeast, the GEFS solution depicts near normal heights over this area, the
upper Mid-Atlantic, and most of the Great Lakes region, indicative of a
stronger mid-level trough over southeastern Canada.

Above normal temperatures continue to be favored across most of the CONUS
during week-2, with the exception of near to below normal temperatures over the
Northeast and northern Great Lakes region. The greatest chances for above
normal temperatures (70-80 percent) are expected for the general vicinity of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, approximately collocated with the highest mean
heights associated with the subtropical ridge. Above normal temperatures
continue to be mostly favored across Alaska and Hawaii, for the same reasons
mentioned in the earlier 6-10 day temperature section.

Above normal precipitation is favored from the Northern and Central Plains
westward and southwestward across the Rockies, Intermountain West, and Pacific
coast. This is supported by most of the precipitation forecast tools, and is
related to the West Coast trough and the influx of monsoon moisture. In the
northeastern CONUS and upper Mid-Atlantic region, there is a slight tilt in the
odds favoring above normal precipitation, consistent with analogs of the manual
blend and the proximity of a weak mid-level trough. Odds slightly favor below
normal precipitation across the western Gulf coast region and southern Florida,
largely due to the proximity of the subtropical ridge. For most of Alaska and
Hawaii, the same reasoning for the 6-10 day precipitation outlook applies to
week-2, warranting enhanced chances for above normal precipitation.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 on a scale of 1-5,
based on reasonable agreement among the various height, temperature, and
precipitation tools and a relatively stable flow pattern at the 500-hPa level.

FORECASTER: Anthony A

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20240803 - 20170804 - 20160819 - 20250822 - 19930802


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20170803 - 20240803 - 20160819 - 20100817 - 20160824


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 17 - 21 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 19 - 25 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$