373
FXUS06 KWBC 192001
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Wed November 19 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 25 - 29 2025

The 500-hPa height pattern during the 6-10 day period is forecast to be
amplified and progressive across North America and the surrounding regions. A
strong positive 500-hPa height anomaly is forecast to be centered over the
Chukchi Sea and overspread Alaska and the northeastern Pacific. Dynamical
guidance is supportive of positive height anomalies over the western contiguous
U.S. (CONUS) developing during the period. A shortwave trough is favored to
progress through the ridge during the second half of the period before digging
into a broad trough over the western CONUS during week-2. Meanwhile, a trough
is forecast to overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies during the
period. This will likely displace a weak mid-level ridge over the southeastern
CONUS. In Hawaii, troughing is forecast to the northwest of the state.

Below normal temperatures are forecast to quickly expand across the Plains and
into the Mississippi Valley during the 6-10 day period as a mid-level trough
digs into the eastern CONUS. Above normal temperatures are favored over the
Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Mid-Atlantic ahead of the mid-level
trough. There are significant changes in the 6-10 day temperature forecast over
the central and eastern CONUS from yesterday as a very warm day times off and a
much colder forecast develops faster than previously forecast. There are much
stronger chances of above normal temperatures across the southwestern CONUS and
surrounding regions relative to yesterday with stronger positive 500-hPa height
anomalies forecast. In Alaska, much of the Mainland and Aleutians are favored
to have above normal temperatures during the period. Below normal temperatures
are favored for Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures remain
favored.

Above normal precipitation is favored across much of the CONUS during the 6-10
day period. An extra-tropical cyclone is favored to bring enhanced
precipitation to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during the period.
Unsettled weather is favored over the Northern Rockies and into the Plains,
consistent with the dynamical and statistical guidance. Below normal
precipitation is favored in the southwestern quadrant of the CONUS where
positive 500-hPa height anomalies are likely to suppress precipitation chances
during the 6-10 day period. In Alaska, below normal precipitation is favored
for the northern Mainland and into eastern and then Southeast Alaska. Above
normal precipitation is favored for southwestern Mainland Alaska and the Alaska
Peninsula. In Hawaii, above normal precipitation is favored with the strongest
chances to the northwest of the state.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to
generally good model agreement, offset by a predicted transitional pattern
leading to uncertainty in the temperature forecast across the western CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 27 - DEC 03, 2025

As in the 6-10 day period, the week-2 500-hPa height pattern remains amplified
and progressive. The manual 500-hPa height blend forecasts near to below normal
500-hPa heights across most of the CONUS and strong ridging over the Chukchi
and Bering Seas, Mainland Alaska, and the eastern Pacific. The ridge and trough
axis have shifted east relative to yesterday`s forecast. The daily 500-hPa
height anomalies indicate a much more progressive pattern, particularly across
the CONUS. Positive anomalies are favored early in the period across the
western CONUS before a shortwave trough deepens and heights fall. Meanwhile, a
trough early in the period over the East is favored to progress east with
mid-level heights potentially rising for a period of time during week-2.
Uncertainty is very high by the second half of week-2 over the East.

As in the 6-10 day period, the week-2 forecast favors below normal temperatures
to envelop much of the CONUS. 50 to 60% chances for below normal temperatures
are forecast for the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great
Lakes. There are significant changes in the week-2 temperature forecast across
the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS where above normal temperature chances
have given way to near to below normal temperatures chances as the trough moves
into the region a little earlier than previously forecast. Above normal
temperatures are slightly favored in California and surrounding areas as more
ridging remains in place for the period. The GEFS based tools in particular
favor a warmer solution in this region and statistical guidance supports warmer
temperatures. In Alaska, above normal temperatures are favored over most of the
Mainland and into the Aleutian Islands while below normal temperatures are
favored in Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures remain likely.

Cyclonic flow across the CONUS during week-2 supports elevated above normal
precipitation probabilities over most areas. An active storm track is likely
with several short waves ejecting out of the Rockies. Tied to the initial
trough progression, surface low pressure is possible across the Great Lakes and
Northeast early in the period, with the potential for reloading troughing in
the West supporting cyclogenesis across the central CONUS later in the period.
Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of the West Coast with
positive 500-hPa height anomalies and ridging favored early in the period over
the northeastern Pacific. The ridge axis across Alaska supports enhanced near-
to below normal precipitation probabilities across most of the state. Above
normal precipitation is favored for the Alaska Peninsula and much of the
Aleutian Islands. Enhanced chances for above normal precipitation are forecast
across Hawaii as a result of troughing to the north of the state.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement regarding a colder pattern taking shape across the CONUS,
offset by uncertainty in timing and relatively warmer temperatures at the
outset of the period.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 25 - 29 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     N    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 27 - Dec 03, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$