377
FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon June 16 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 26 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the
ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models. The resultant manual
blend features an amplified pattern with ridging over the North Pacific and
Alaska, troughing over the western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and ridging over
much of eastern North America.

As a result of amplified troughing over the West Coast, below-normal
temperatures are favored over most of the western CONUS as well as portions of
the Northern Plains and along the Rio Grande Valley. Probabilities exceed 70%
for portions of the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, under the greatest
500-hPa height departures. Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored east
of the Mississippi, with probabilities exceeding 80% for portions of the Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. with amplified ridging over the
southeastern CONUS. Under predicted positive 500-hPa height anomalies,
above-normal temperatures are likely over much of Alaska, while below-normal
temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and parts of the southwestern
Mainland Alaska, consistent with the reforecast consolidation temperature
forecast tool. Above-normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii, with positive
surrounding sea surface temperature anomalies.

A strong Bermuda high is depicted in model ensembles throughout the forecast
period, resulting in a steady stream of Gulf moisture advecting into the Great
Plains and Southeast U.S. and favoring above-normal precipitation for the
middle CONUS. Probabilities are elevated (>50%) over the Northern Rockies and
the Upper Mississippi Valley with support for the upper-level trough over the
West Coast, and also along the Rio Grande Valley, where models depict
converging moist airmasses from the Gulf to the east, and from the west as a
result of tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific. Below-normal
precipitation is favored along much of the East Coast, due to the strong
Bermuda high offshore reducing instability along the coast. Over Alaska, the
upper-air pattern switches from ridging to troughing over the course of the
6-10 day period, tilting the odds weakly towards above-normal precipitation for
the Alaskan Mainland, while near-normal precipitation is favored for the
Panhandle, which is a little too far east to be influenced by this ridge-trough
transition. For the Hawaiian Islands, elevated odds (>50% for all except the
Big Island) of above-normal precipitation are favored, consistent with the
Hawaii CON and Autoblend.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 50% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 25% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very
good agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and
statistical tools is offset by differences between raw and bias-corrected, and
the reforecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 30 2025

Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a somewhat progressive
and de-amplified 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period
across North America and the surrounding regions. Troughing along the West
Coast is weaker during week-2, and positive height anomalies are weaker over
the eastern CONUS, resulting in a somewhat more zonal flow over North America.
Weak troughing is favored to emerge over the Bering Sea, while ridging over the
North Pacific weakens slightly.

Above-normal temperatures continue to be favored across most of the eastern
half of the CONUS in the week-2 period, under continued ridging and positive
500-hPa height anomalies. Probabilities are slightly weaker than the 6-10 day
period likely due to deamplification of the East Coast ridge but still exceed
70% for portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Weaker troughing over the western CONUS
leads to a quick erosion of the widespread below-normal temperatures favored in
the 6-10 day period west of the Continental Divide. In week-2 below-normal
temperatures are only weakly favored for the Desert Southwest, along the Rocky
Mountains, and for portions of the Northern Plains and Rio Grande Valley, while
near-normal temperatures become most likely for much of the northwestern CONUS.
In Alaska, a slight tilt towards above-normal temperatures remains for the
northeastern Mainland under continued positive 500-hPa height anomalies, while
below-normal temperatures become slightly favored for southern and western
portions of the state as the weak trough over the Bering Sea moves slightly
closer to the western coast. Hawaii continues to lean towards above-normal
temperatures, supported by the Hawaii CON.

Odds tilt towards above-normal precipitation for most of the CONUS due to
continued availability of tropical moisture from both the Gulf region as well
as the Eastern Pacific. Probabilities are slightly enhanced for portions of the
Rio Grande Valley, as well as for much of the north-central CONUS where model
ensembles indicate an increased potential for convective weather. A weakly
building trough over the Bering Sea tilts the Alaskan Mainland towards
above-normal precipitation, while near-normal precipitation is most likely for
Southeastern Alaska. Above-normal precipitation also continues to be weakly
favored for the Hawaiian Islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools is offset by weak ensemble mean 500-hPa height anomalies and diverging
solutions especially over Alaska.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 19.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20000604 - 19880612 - 19780612 - 19900629 - 20010629


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20000604 - 19880612 - 19900628 - 20010627 - 19780611


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 22 - 26 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    N
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 24 - 30 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$