055
FXUS06 KWBC 202002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Thu November 20 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2025

The 500-hPa height pattern during the 6-10 day period is forecast to be
amplified and progressive across North America and the surrounding regions. A
strong positive 500-hPa height anomaly is forecast to be centered over the
Chukchi Sea and overspread Alaska and the northeastern Pacific. Dynamical
guidance remains supportive of positive height anomalies over the western
contiguous U.S. (CONUS). A shortwave trough is favored to progress through the
ridge during the second half of the period before digging into a broad trough
over the western CONUS by the end of the period. Meanwhile, a trough is
forecast to progress east across the north-central and northeastern CONUS
during the period. Dynamical guidance indicates this trough could briefly dig
into the southeastern CONUS. In Hawaii, troughing is forecast to the northwest
of the state.

Below normal temperatures are forecast across much of eastern and central CONUS
during the 6-10 day period. Chances of below-normal (>60%) have strengthened
significantly across the Central and Upper Mississippi Valley. Above normal
temperatures are favored over parts of the Coastal Carolinas, Georgia and into
Florida ahead of the significant pattern change. Above normal temperature
chances remain forecast across the southwestern CONUS and surrounding regions
with briefly positive 500-hPa height anomalies forecast before a rapid
transition to negative 500-hPa height anomalies by the end of the period. In
Alaska, much of the Mainland and Aleutians are favored to have above normal
temperatures during the period. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts
of Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures remain favored.

Above normal precipitation is favored across much of the CONUS during the 6-10
day period. Forecast guidance from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are consistently
forecasting above-normal precipitation to much of the West, likely in
conjunction with anomalous troughing. As more troughing develops over the
Southwest by the second half of the period, chances for precipitation increase.
Thus, whereas yesterday below-normal precipitation was forecast over California
and the Southwest yesterday, above-normal is favored today. This is consistent
with the forecast guidance and changes in the forecast 500-hPa height pattern
relative to yesterday. As a front passes through the southeastern CONUS,
above-normal is favored along and ahead of this feature. Behind the front, an
area of near-normal is favored as the region may briefly dry out before
additional troughing may develop. Overall, an active pattern is favored for the
CONUS, bringing many opportunities for precipitation but a large degree of
uncertainty. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is favored in the
southwestern Mainland into the Aleutians. Below-normal is favored for Southeast
Alaska. Near-normal precipitation is favored for the remainder of Alaska.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to
generally good model agreement, offset by a predicted transitional pattern
leading to uncertainty in the temperature forecast across the western CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2025

As in the 6-10 day period, the week-2 500-hPa height pattern remains amplified
and progressive. The manual 500-hPa height blend forecasts near to below normal
500-hPa heights across most of the CONUS and strong ridging over the Chukchi
and Bering Seas, Mainland Alaska, and the eastern Pacific. The ridge and trough
axis have shifted east relative to yesterday`s forecast. There is much better
support for a shortwave trough to dig and develop into a fairly broad trough
across the southwestern CONUS today, relative to yesterday. As such the week-2
mean 500-hPa height blend has lower heights across the Rockies and Southwest
relative to yesterday. Meanwhile, a trough early in the period over the East is
favored to progress east with mid-level heights rising for a period of time
during week-2. Uncertainty is very high by the second half of week-2 over the
East.

As in the 6-10 day period, the week-2 forecast favors below normal temperatures
to envelop much of the CONUS. 50 to 60% chances for below normal temperatures
are forecast for the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great
Lakes. Multiple mid-level troughs are favored to develop across the CONUS and
bring below normal temperatures. The exceptions are in the Southeast and
California. Above normal temperatures are favored across the Gulf Coast and
Coastal Carolinas where weak ridging may rebuild by the second half of week-2.
Above normal temperatures are slightly favored in parts of California. In
Alaska, above normal temperatures are favored over most of the Mainland and
into the Aleutian Islands while near normal temperatures are favored in
Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures remain likely.

Cyclonic flow across the CONUS during week-2 supports elevated above normal
precipitation probabilities over most areas. An active storm track is likely
with several short waves ejecting out of the Rockies. Tied to the initial
trough progression, surface low pressure is possible across the Great Lakes and
Northeast early in the period, with the potential for reloading troughing in
the West supporting cyclogenesis across the central CONUS later in the period.
Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for parts of the West Coast with
positive 500-hPa height anomalies and ridging favored over the northeastern
Pacific limiting moisture into the region. In Alaska, the mid-level ridge is
forecast to shift slightly southeast. This may allow an increase in moisture
into parts of Mainland Alaska. As such, above-normal precipitation is favored
for the southern half of Mainland Alaska, consistent with most forecast
guidance. Near-normal precipitation is favored for Southeast Alaska and the
northern Mainland. Enhanced chances for above normal precipitation are forecast
across Hawaii as a result of troughing to the north of the state.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement regarding a colder pattern taking shape across the CONUS,
offset by uncertainty in timing and relatively warmer temperatures at the
outset of the period.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
December 18.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 26 - 30 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 28 - Dec 04, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$