700
FXUS06 KWBC 181902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue June 18 2024

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 28 2024

An overall zonal mid-level flow pattern is forecast over the Contiguous U.S.
(CONUS) by todays GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means, with a short wave
trough developing and moving over the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Weak
positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across most of the CONUS by the
ECMWF ensemble mean, and over the western CONUS in the GEFS ensemble mean
forecast. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over much of Canada
and near (0Z ECMWF ensemble mean) or over (0Z GEFS ensemble mean) the Canadian
border into the northern CONUS. Weak 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted
over Alaska by the GEFS, and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted by
the ECMWF ensemble mean.

Above-normal temperatures are favored across nearly all of the CONUS, except
for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies and
zonal flow. Below-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Pacific
Northwest, under a predicted trough later in the period. Below-normal
temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and parts of the west coast of
Mainland Alaska, supported by most dynamical model forecasts. Below-normal
temperatures are also favored for southern areas of the Alaska Panhandle, ahead
of a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are favored over interior
Mainland Alaska, supported by the temperature consolidation of calibrated GEFS
and ECMWF ensemble forecasts.

Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for the eastern Aleutians and
much of Mainland Alaska, supported by most dynamical model precipitation
forecasts, while below-normal precipitation is slightly favored for extreme
northwestern areas of the Mainland Alaska coast. Above-normal precipitation is
favored for the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a predicted trough, while
below-normal precipitation is favored for most interior areas of the West,
under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above-normal precipitation is slightly
favored for much of the eastern CONUS, following the consolidation and most
dynamical model precipitation tools.

Above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures are favored for
Hawaii, based on dynamical model-based precipitation tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
agreement among the temperature tools offset by a less amplified circulation
pattern and weak precipitation signals.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2024

Generally, a zonal mid-level flow pattern continues over the CONUS the week 2,
while a trough is predicted to move into the Pacific Northwest during the
period. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies continue across most of the CONUS in
the ensemble means, with more amplified anomalies over the East. Near-zero or
slightly negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over parts of the
northwestern CONUS. Weak 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over Mainland
Alaska by most model solutions, and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
predicted over the western Aleutians.

Above-normal temperatures are favored across nearly all of the CONUS, except
for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies.
Below-normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest, under
a predicted trough. Below-normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and
parts of the west coast of Mainland Alaska, under primarily northerly flow.
Below-normal temperatures are also favored for southern areas of the Alaska
Panhandle, ahead of a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are favored
over interior Mainland Alaska, supported by calibrated ECMWF temperature
forecasts.

Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for most of Mainland Alaska,
supported by the precipitation consolidation. Above-normal precipitation is
favored for the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a predicted trough, while
below-normal precipitation is favored for most interior areas of the West,
under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Above-normal precipitation is favored
for the north-central CONUS and for the southern CONUS from the Southwest to
the Southeast, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model
precipitation.

Above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures are favored for
Hawaii, based on dynamical model-based precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
agreement among the temperature tools offset by a less amplified circulation
pattern and weak precipitation signals.

FORECASTER: D Collins

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19530627 - 19970627 - 19940613 - 19990702 - 19690628


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19590528 - 19530627 - 19990701 - 19970626 - 19940615


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 24 - 28 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    B    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 26 - Jul 02, 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$