913
FXUS06 KWBC 172002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Mon November 17 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 23 - 27 2025

High-latitude ridging is predicted to amplify across Alaska throughout the 6-10
day period favoring troughing digging downstream across the western CONUS and
the start of a significant pattern change. The 0z Canadian ensemble continues
to be the most progressive and amplified with this trough with the 0z ECMWF and
GEFS ensembles being a bit weaker. Conversely, ridging is forecast downstream
across the eastern CONUS, with some eastward displacement of this feature
likely by the end of the period. Today`s 500-hPa manual height blend for the
6-10 day period depicts positive height anomalies across the eastern half of
the CONUS, with the largest anomalies (+60 meters) across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Near-normal heights are indicated for much of the West given
predicted height falls associated with incoming troughing. Large positive
height anomalies are indicated across Alaska, with a +180 meter maximum over
the northwestern part of the state. Near-to slightly below-normal 500-hPa
heights are forecast across Hawaii as troughing amplifies across the central
Pacific.

Ridging over the eastern CONUS combined with enhanced southerly return flow
supports a warm pattern east of the Rockies in the days leading up to
Thanksgiving, with elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures
favored. The highest probabilities (greater than 70 percent) are indicated
across the Southeast, with probabilities greater than 60 percent extending into
the Upper Midwest where +10 deg F temperature anomalies are possible,
especially early in the period. Above-normal temperatures are favored across
the northwestern CONUS at the outset of the period, with a transition to colder
temperatures by the middle of the period as troughing develops. As a result,
the forecast for the period as a whole is difficult, and adding to the
uncertainty is the ECMWF and GEFS reforecast (uncalibrated) tools favor a
warmer (colder) outcome. Therefore, near-normal temperatures are forecast
across much of the western third of the CONUS for the 6-10 day period, with
higher probabilities for below-normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest
and Pacific Northwest where there is better tool agreement. The building ridge
over Alaska supports increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
much of the Mainland and the Aleutians, with slightly elevated chances of near-
to below-normal temperatures across the southeastern Mainland and Southeast
Alaska. Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii consistent with
the reforecast consolidation tool.

Tied to increased southerly flow, enhanced precipitation is forecast across the
south-central CONUS, with the dynamical models depicting the largest
precipitation totals across eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Ark-La-Tex region, justifying 50-70 percent probabilities for above-normal
precipitation. Later in the period, the strongest baroclinicity is forecast to
shift toward the north and west as troughing builds into the western CONUS and
subsequent progression of surface low pressure systems ejecting out of the
Rockies. Therefore, broadly enhanced probabilities for above-normal
precipitation extend throughout much of the CONUS. Further downstream, near- to
below-normal precipitation is forecast across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
the southern Florida Peninsula. Near- to slightly below-normal precipitation is
favored across portions of coastal California supported by both the reforecast
and uncalibrated ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. Ridging supports elevated chances of
below-normal precipitation across eastern and northern Alaska. Above-normal
precipitation probabilities are increased over southwestern Alaska tied to
enhanced onshore flow being displaced further north. Elevated odds for
above-normal precipitation are forecast across Hawaii tied to increased
troughing in the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, 5% of Today`s operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and
30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to
generally good model agreement, offset by a predicted transitional pattern
leading to uncertainty in the temperature forecast across the western CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 25 - DEC 01, 2025

The pattern transition discussed during the 6-10 day period is forecast to
continue to take shape later in week-2. This is partially driven by the Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO), as well as the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric
Warming (SSW) event in late November. The week-2 manual 500-hPa height blend
depicts a +210 meter positive height anomaly center over the southern Arctic
Ocean to the north of Alaska, which teleconnects with more troughing and
negative height anomalies downstream over the CONUS. The 0z ECMWF and Canadian
ensembles are more amplified with the troughing over the CONUS compared to the
GEFS ensemble. Ridging is still forecast to dominate the East for much of the
period. The manual height blend depicts +30 meter positive height anomalies
across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys eastward to the
Atlantic Coast. Near- to below-normal heights are indicated across the western
and north-central CONUS. Strongly positive height anomalies are indicated
across all of Alaska underneath ridging. Near-normal 500-hPa heights are
forecast across Hawaii, with below-normal heights more likely to the north of
the islands tied to troughing.

The highest confidence in the week-2 temperature outlook is across the eastern
CONUS where ridging favors above-normal temperatures continuing through
Thanksgiving. Dynamical models depict a progression of colder temperatures into
much of the northern and central CONUS by the second half of week-2. The week-2
temperature guidance supports elevated probabilities for below-normal
temperatures over the northwestern and north-central CONUS. There is more
uncertainty across the Mississippi Valley and eastern Plains where warmer
temperatures early in week-2 skew the period average upwards favoring
near-normal for the period as a whole. There is also less confidence across the
Southwest where most tools continue to lean toward below-normal temperatures,
but the GEFS reforecast tool depicts more warming as troughing shifts further
inland, with some support from the teleconnection tool. Therefore, only a
slight tilt toward enhanced below-normal temperature probabilities is
maintained across the Southwest. Above-normal temperature probabilities are
increased over Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians underneath ridging.
Below-normal temperatures are favored downstream over Southeast Alaska.
Above-normal temperatures remain forecast across Hawaii.

As noted in the 6-10 day outlook, the baroclinic zone is forecast to shift
toward the north-central CONUS tied to incoming troughing over the region. This
supports above-normal precipitation probabilities greater than 50 percent,
further aided by the lower climatology compared to further east. The arrival of
colder air also raises the concern for wintry weather across the region around
and after Thanksgiving, with several previous deterministic GFS and ECMWF
solutions depicting a swath of heavy snow over some areas depending on surface
low track and strength. Odds for above-normal precipitation continue to be
elevated throughout much of the central and eastern CONUS tied to an active
southern stream pattern and continued chances for frontal waves to propagate
through the region. The ridge axis across Alaska supports an uptick in
below-normal precipitation probabilities across eastern and northern parts of
the state, supported by the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools. Enhanced chances
for above-normal precipitation are forecast across Hawaii as a result of
troughing to the north of the state.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement regarding a colder pattern taking shape across the west-central
CONUS, offset by uncertainty in timing and relatively warmer temperatures at
the outset of the period.

FORECASTER: Thomas Collow

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 23 - 27 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    B
SRN CALIF   B    B     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       N    B
MASS        N    B     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 25 - Dec 01, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$