064
FXUS06 KWBC 212002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Fri November 21 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 27 - DEC 01, 2025

The ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble models broadly agree on a progressive
and amplified 500-hPa height pattern over North America and surrounding regions
during the 610-day period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means,
weighting the ECMWF model more heavily due to its recent higher anomaly
correlation skill. The manual blend indicates a strong ridge and positive
500-hPa height anomaly over Alaska extending southward into the northeastern
Pacific, while a deep trough is forecast south of the Aleutians. Mid-level
troughing and negative height anomalies are forecast over the western
contiguous U.S. (CONUS). Another trough is predicted over the northeastern
CONUS during the period. Weak above-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over
parts of the south-central and southeastern CONUS. In Hawaii, troughing is
forecast to the northwest of the state.

Near to below normal temperatures are forecast over much of the northern and
eastern CONUS during the 610 day period in association with troughs and
below-normal 500-hPa heights predicted over these regions. Chances of
below-normal temperatures (>70%) have strengthened significantly across
portions of the Northern Plains. Above-normal temperatures are favored over
most of the southwestern CONUS, southern Texas, and Florida, supported by most
of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. In Alaska, much of the Mainland
and the Aleutians are favored to have above-normal temperatures during the
period, while below-normal temperatures are favored for parts of Southeast
Alaska, consistent with most dynamical model forecast tools. Above-normal
temperatures are favored across the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the
temperature consolidation.

Above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the CONUS during the 610
day period. Forecast guidance from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE consistently
indicates above-normal precipitation across much of the West, likely in
conjunction with anomalous troughing. As more troughing develops over the
Southwest by the second half of the period, chances for precipitation increase.
Near to above-normal precipitation is also favored over the eastern CONUS due
to the predicted trough and surface southerly flow over the region, supported
by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Overall, an active
pattern is favored for the CONUS, bringing many opportunities for precipitation
but with a large degree of uncertainty. In Alaska, near to above-normal
precipitation is favored over the Mainland and the Aleutians, while
below-normal precipitation is favored for eastern Southeast Alaska.
Above-normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with the
precipitation consolidation.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5), due to
good agreement among ensemble model forecasts, offset by some differences among
temperature and precipitation forecast tools for certain areas.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 05, 2025

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day period
predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 610 day
period across North America and the surrounding regions. As in the 610 day
period, the week-2 500-hPa height pattern remains amplified and progressive.
The manual 500-hPa height blend forecasts strong ridging over the Chukchi and
Bering Seas, Mainland Alaska, and the eastern Pacific, and a trough south of
the Aleutians. There is much better support today, relative to yesterday, for a
shortwave trough to dig and develop into a fairly broad trough across the
southwestern CONUS during week-2. Weak above-normal 500-hPa heights are
forecast over the central and eastern CONUS. Near to below-normal 500-hPa
heights are predicted across Hawaii during the week-2 period.

The week-2 forecast favors below-normal temperatures across much of the western
and central CONUS as well as the Northeast. Seventy to eighty percent chances
for below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Northern Plains. Multiple
mid-level troughs are favored to develop across the CONUS and bring
below-normal temperatures. Above-normal temperatures are favored across the
southwestern CONUS in association with predicted above-normal 500-hPa heights
and surface southerly flow over the region, supported by most dynamical
temperature forecast tools. In Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored
over most of the Mainland and into the Aleutian Islands due to strong ridging
and above-normal 500-hPa heights, while below-normal temperatures are favored
in eastern Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above-normal temperatures remain likely.

A deep trough predicted over the western CONUS during week-2 supports elevated
above-normal precipitation probabilities over most areas. Below-normal
precipitation is favored for parts of the West Coast, with positive 500-hPa
height anomalies and ridging favored over the northeastern Pacific limiting
moisture into the region. In Alaska, the mid-level ridge is forecast to shift
slightly southeast, which may allow an increase in moisture into parts of
Mainland Alaska, the Aleutians, and Southeast Alaska, consistent with most
forecast guidance. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast
across Hawaii as a result of troughing to the north of the state during the
week-2 period, consistent with the precipitation consolidation tool.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average (3 out of 5), due to
generally good agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools, offset
by increasing uncertainty later in the period.


FORECASTER: Luke H

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
December 18.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 27 - Dec 01, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 29 - Dec 05, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   B    B
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$