681
FXUS06 KWBC 052002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Wed February 05 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15 2025

The dynamical models are in good agreement regarding the mid-level height
pattern across North America during the 6 to 10 day period. A mid level trough
and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across the
western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) into much of the Great Plains and Upper- and
Middle-Mississippi Valley. The trough continues to deamplify relative to prior
forecasts. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge is forecast across the eastern CONUS.
Prior forecasts had a full latitude ridge and associated positive anomalies
across the eastern Pacific. This feature continues to be pinched off with
positive anomalies remaining across Alaska and further south but with only
slightly positive anomalies remaining around the 50th parallel. This introduces
increased onshore flow into the West.

Below-normal temperatures remain forecast for much of the CONUS during the 6-10
day period. The strongest probabilities (>80%) are forecast across the interior
northwestern and north-central CONUS. The forecast five day mean temperature
anomalies from the GEFS are in excess of negative 15 deg F across portions of
the Northern Plains. Dynamical guidance is consistent for below-normal
temperatures to advect into Southern Plains during the period. Below-normal
temperatures are also forecast across the Great Lakes and Northeast consistent
with the dynamical guidance. Above-normal temperatures remain likely across the
Southeast with chances exceeding 80% across most of Florida. In Alaska,
above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the Mainland with the
strongest probabilities across the western Mainland and Aleutians upstream of
the mid-level ridge axis. Below-normal temperatures are favored in parts of
Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above-normal temperatures are likely.

Above-normal precipitation is forecast across much of the CONUS. Probabilities
are further enhanced in the southeastern CONUS where a baroclinic zone between
warmer temperatures across the southeast and cooler temperatures in the
northern CONUS may bring one or more rounds of precipitation to the region,
thereby increasing chances for above-normal precipitation. Reforecast guidance
from the GEFS and ECENS is consistent with yesterday showing increased chances
for above-normal precipitation across much of the West supporting higher
probabilities (>60%) over parts of Northern California and Oregon. Increased
probabilities have also expanded southward into parts of Southern California
consistent with the ensembles and deterministic guidance that there may be
multiple systems to move into the region, the first across portions of
California, followed by a second system across the Pacific Northwest.
Below-normal precipitation is favored across much of Alaska during the period
beneath weak mid-level ridging. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored
in Hawaii with better agreement among model guidance relative to yesterday.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-Average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools is offset by a progressive
pattern.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2025

Early in week-2, zonal flow across the eastern Pacific into the western CONUS
is forecast, before mid-level ridging begins to redevelop by the end of the
period. Mid-level troughing is forecast across the northern CONUS during
week-2, with associated negative height anomalies extending across much of the
western and north-central CONUS. This troughing is considerably less amplified
than prior forecasts. Positive mid-level height anomalies are forecast across
the southern and eastern CONUS during week-2.  Positive 500-hPa height
anomalies are forecast across much of Mainland Alaska and the eastern
Aleutians, with near-normal heights across southeastern Alaska into western
Canada.

Below-normal temperatures remain favored across much of the northern half of
the CONUS during week-2. The strongest probabilities remain across the Northern
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Below-normal temperatures are also favored
for parts of the West, Central Plains, and Northeast. There is more uncertainty
in the extent of the below-normal temperatures relative to yesterday in the
Mid-Atlantic, Ohio, Middle-Mississippi, Southern Plains and Four Corners where
near-normal to above-normal temperatures are generally favored. The Gulf Coast
and southern Atlantic states maintain strong chances for above-normal
temperatures during week-2. In Alaska, above-normal temperatures are limited to
parts of the southwestern Mainland and the Aleutians with near-normal
temperatures favored across much of the rest of the Mainland. Below-normal
temperatures remain favored in Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above-normal
temperatures continue to be likely.

Above-normal precipitation is forecast across much of the CONUS. The strongest
probabilities are forecast in the Pacific Northwest with one or two storm
systems pushing into the region early in the week-2 period. These systems
generally increase above-normal precipitation chances across much of the
western CONUS during week-2. In the eastern CONUS, above-normal precipitation
remains favored with multiple systems forecast to impact the region. Some of
the precipitation signal from prior forecasts is timing off into week-1
reducing probabilities slightly relative to prior forecasts. Near- to
below-normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Central and Southern
Plains between systems. In Alaska, below-normal precipitation is favored for
the northern Mainland with near-normal precipitation favored for the southern
half of Alaska. In Hawaii, a slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation is
favored.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, Fair
agreement among the dynamical guidance is offset by low probabilities and a
more zonal flow pattern.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
February 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19880129 - 19750203 - 19590214 - 19890202 - 19540116


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19750203 - 19890201 - 19590214 - 19880129 - 19540115


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Feb 11 - 15 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Feb 13 - 19 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$