347
FXUS06 KWBC 022005
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Mon November 02 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 12 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts are in fairly good
agreement on the average large-scale circulation pattern over the North America
domain during the 6-10 day period. While these ensemble mean 500-hPa height
forecasts are generally similar, there are differences in the phase and
amplitude of the primary features resulting in some differences in model
temperature and precipitation forecasts. The manual height blend is based on 0Z
ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian model 500-hPa height forecasts, weighting the ECMWF
ensemble mean greater due to recent model skill. The manual blend indicates a
deep slow-moving trough over the Aleutians, northeastern Pacific and off the
West Coast of the contiguous United States (CONUS). Anomalous ridging with
above normal heights is forecast over the western and central CONUS. Meanwhile
a trough is forecast over the eastern CONUS. Below normal 500-hPa heights are
forecast over the Aleutians, Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska,  while
above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii near the eastern
extension of a ridge forecast over the central Pacific.

Above normal temperatures are likely across the West, due to anomalous ridging
ahead of the deep trough forecast over the northeastern Pacific. As this ridge
progresses eastward, an increasingly warm pattern is favored across the
north-central CONUS, with probabilities of above normal temperatures exceeding
80 percent across the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. Farther to the
south and east, a trough predicted in the eastern CONUS reduces chances of
anomalous warmth. Below normal temperatures are favored over parts of the
Southeast associated with a trough predicted over the eastern CONUS. Above
normal temperatures are more likely across the Northeast and Great Lakes
region, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. Above
normal temperatures are likely across much of eastern Alaska, ahead of the deep
trough over the northeastern Pacific. Near to below normal temperatures are
more likely from the Aleutians to the western Mainland Alaska, closer to the
mean trough axis. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, mainly in
response to observed above normal SSTs over much of the tropical Pacific,
associated with the current El Nino.

The positioning and strength of the cyclonic flow over the northeast Pacific
promotes an active pattern across much of the western CONUS, eastern Mainland
Alaska, and Southeast Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation
exceed 60 percent across parts of the West Coast. Above normal precipitation is
also favored in parts of the Northeast and southern Florida, ahead of the mean
trough position predicted over the eastern CONUS. Near to below normal
precipitation is favored over the remainder of the CONUS, supported by most of
the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. A slight tilt toward below normal
precipitation is also indicated for parts of western Mainland Alaska, due to
the predicted mean low level offshore flow. For Hawaii, above normal
precipitation is favored for the Big Island, while near to below normal
precipitation is likely over Maui, Oahu, and Kauai, consistent with an
automated blend of temperature tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
fairly good agreement among today`s model height solutions, offset by some
differences among model temperature and precipitation tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 16 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day
period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the
610 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. ECMWF based
tools were generally weighted more in the forecast, due to greater skill and
persistence of yesterday`s forecast. However, uncertainty increases in the
forecasts for several areas of the domain. The 8-14 day manual blend 500-hPa
height pattern shows a deep trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over
the northeastern Pacific and the West Coast. Residual cyclonic flow is forecast
in its wake over southwestern Alaska. Downstream ridging and above normal
500-hPa heights are forecast over the north-central CONUS.  Farther to the
south, weak anomalous troughing and weak below normal 500-hPa heights are
predicted over the southeastern CONUS. Above normal mid-level heights are
forecast to continue across Hawaii, associated with broad ridging over the
central Pacific.

Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS associated with
anomalous ridging ahead of the deep trough over the northeastern Pacific. The
highest confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) for anomalous warmth is
indicated for portions of the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley
as the ridge consolidates over the area throughout much of the period. Above
normal temperatures are least likely (less than 33 percent chance) across much
of Florida, tied to predicted troughing. Anomalous warmth is more likely across
eastern Alaska, due to anomalous southeasterly low level flow ahead of a
surface low predicted over the Gulf of Alaska. Near to below normal
temperatures are favored behind this surface low, from the western Mainland to
the Aleutians. Above normal temperatures are favored across Hawaii, underneath
predicted above normal heights and consistent with expansive above normal SSTs
associated with the current El Nino.

As the trough over the eastern Pacific slowly approaches the West coast, an
active pattern is likely across much of the western and central CONUS as well
as eastern Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 60
percent over the Pacific Northwest and northwestern California, where enhanced
moisture flow is most likely. Above normal precipitation is modestly favored
across parts of the Southeast, tied to a departing trough, supported by most of
the dynamic precipitation forecast tools. Increased chances of below normal
precipitation are favored across most of the northeastern CONUS, including the
Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Northeast, and adjacent areas of
the Ohio Valley. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for
parts of western Mainland Alaska, due to predicted low level offshore flow.
Near to below normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, consistent with an
automated blend of precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
fairly good agreement among today`s model height solutions, offset by some
differences among model temperature and precipitation tools.

FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 19.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20221110 - 20161029 - 20081102 - 20001026 - 20001013


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20221110 - 20251012 - 20161028 - 19981012 - 20001027


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 08 - 12 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    B     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 10 - 16 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$