039
FXUS06 KWBC 131901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon October 13 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 19 - 23 2025

The ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble models broadly agree on the 500-hPa
height pattern over North America and surrounding regions during the 610 day
period, with only minor variations among the models in terms of the amplitude
and phase of predicted wave features. The manual height blend is based on
ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF model more heavily due to its recent
anomaly correlation skill. The manual blend indicates below-normal mean 500-hPa
heights from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Great Lakes, associated with a
pair of shortwave troughs. Downstream ridging is forecast over eastern Canada
and the Northeast. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the
southern CONUS. Generally near-normal heights are forecast for Alaska, except
across the Aleutians and the west coast of the Mainland, where below-normal
heights are forecast as a trough approaches from the Bering Sea. Near- to
slightly below-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted in the vicinity of Hawaii.

Below-normal temperatures are likely across most of the western CONUS under
below-normal 500-hPa heights. Probabilities of below-normal temperatures exceed
50 percent across much of the interior West, as a shortwave trough is forecast
to dive southeastward into the area by the middle of the period. Elevated
chances of above-normal temperatures are forecast for most of the central and
eastern CONUS, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools.
Probabilities of above-normal temperatures exceed 70 percent across southern
Texas, ahead of the predicted trough in the western CONUS and consistent with
observed above-normal SSTs in the adjacent Gulf. Above-normal temperatures are
likely across most of Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, ahead of a trough
predicted over the western Bering Sea. However, near-normal temperatures are
slightly favored for Southeast Alaska, beneath modestly enhanced anomalous
northerly mid-level flow. Above-normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii,
consistent with observed above-normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Above-normal precipitation is likely across the Northern Rockies and adjacent
areas of the Pacific Northwest, Central Rockies, Great Basin, and Northern and
Central Plains due to predicted cyclonic flow and associated shortwave troughs.
Above-normal precipitation is also favored for the central and eastern CONUS
due to enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf combined with predicted
frontal activity, supported by most of the precipitation forecast tools.
Below-normal precipitation is favored across most of New Mexico and parts of
southeastern Arizona, as the mean Pacific storm track is expected to remain to
its north. An active pattern is likely across most of Alaska ahead of a deep
mid-level trough predicted over the western Bering Sea. Above-normal
precipitation is also favored for Hawaii, near a predicted mean mid-level low.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5) due to
good agreement among ensemble model forecasts, offset by some differences among
temperature and precipitation forecast tools for certain areas.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 21 - 27 2025

During week 2, a transition to a lower-amplitude pattern is noted, as weak mean
500-hPa height anomalies are predicted across much of the Lower 48 states.
Farther north, an amplified trough is predicted over the Bering Sea. This mean
500-hPa pattern would result in near- to below-normal heights across the
northern CONUS and modestly above-normal heights across the southern tier. The
resulting enhanced north-to-south mid-level height gradient favors fast Pacific
flow across much of the country. Below-normal heights are likely for much of
Alaska as the deep trough over the Bering Sea approaches the western Mainland
and progresses southeastward toward the Gulf of Alaska. Strong anomalous
ridging is predicted downstream over the Davis Strait, signaling a likely
transition to a negative NAO pattern. An area of mid-level low pressure is
forecast to persist in the vicinity of Hawaii.

Near- to below-normal temperatures are favored across the western CONUS due to
residual troughing early in the period. Conversely, above-normal temperatures
are more likely downstream across the central and eastern CONUS under weak
ridging, supported by most of the temperature forecast tools. Near- to
above-normal temperatures remain favored across most of Alaska ahead of a deep
trough forecast over the Bering Sea. However, probabilities are more modest
relative to yesterday, particularly for the Aleutians and the west coast of the
Mainland, as the Bering Sea trough progresses southeastward toward the Gulf of
Alaska later in the period. Near-normal temperatures remain more likely for
Southeast Alaska due to the offsetting influences of weakly enhanced southerly
mean mid-level flow and predicted modestly below-normal heights. Above-normal
temperatures are likely for Hawaii, especially the western and central islands,
consistent with observed above-normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Above-normal precipitation is favored across the northwestern CONUS, extending
eastward to the Upper Great Lakes, due to predicted enhanced low-amplitude
Pacific flow and embedded shortwave troughs. Probabilities of above-normal
precipitation exceed 50 percent across parts of the Pacific Northwest, largely
due to an approaching deep trough later in the period. Above-normal
precipitation is favored across the south-central CONUS due to predicted
modestly enhanced easterly or southeasterly low-level flow early in the period.
Near-normal precipitation is favored for parts of the eastern CONUS, supported
by most of the precipitation forecast tools. A slight tilt toward below-normal
precipitation is forecast across most of New Mexico and southeastern Arizona,
under predicted weak ridging. Near- to above-normal precipitation is favored
across Alaska as a deep mid-level trough progresses from the Bering Sea
southeastward toward the Gulf of Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is also
favored for Hawaii, near a predicted mean mid-level low.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average (3 out of 5) due to
good overall agreement on the mid-level height forecast, offset by a
deamplifying pattern and weak signals in the precipitation tools for some areas.

FORECASTER: Luke H

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
October 16.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 19 - 23 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 21 - 27 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$