889
FXUS06 KWBC 291918
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 Day Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
3:00 PM EDT Thu October 29 2026

6-10 Day Outlook for Wed Nov 04 2026 - Sun Nov 08 2026

Todays numerical models are in fairly good agreement on the mean 500-hPa
pattern across North America and vicinity. An expansive area of above normal
heights is forecast across Canada and adjacent areas of the northern Contiguous
United States (CONUS) and eastern Alaska, punctuated by a strengthening ridge
over west-central Canada and a departing ridge over Atlantic Canada. The ridge
over west-central Canada is forecast to consolidate over central Canada toward
the end of the period, resulting in rising heights across the Northern Plains.
The ridge over Atlantic Canada is forecast to weaken and exit further away from
the Northeast, allowing a trough to slowly progress eastward in its wake from
the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Farther to the west, a deep
trough is forecast to slowly progress from the Aleutians southeastward to the
northeastern Pacific, well offshore of the Pacific Northwest and Southeast
Alaska. Upstream of this trough, a ridge is forecast to develop near or over the
Northern Rockies. A weak shortwave trough is forecast by some model solutions to
undercut this ridge across the southwestern CONUS. Near to slightly above normal
mean mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii.

Near normal temperatures are modestly favored across southern portions of the
Southwest and adjacent areas of the southern High Plains, behind the trough
forecast over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A second weaker southern stream
trough is possible across the Southwest, which would also support reduced above
normal temperature probabilities. Warmer than normal conditions are likely ahead
of the trough predicted over the Lower Mississippi Valley, across the East, with
above normal temperature probabilities exceeding 70 percent from the
Mid-Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast northwestward to the Great
Lakes. Above normal temperatures are also favored across most of the remainder
of the northern tier of the CONUS, tied to predicted above normal heights
extending from expansive ridging over Canada. Above normal temperatures are
likely across much of Alaska, ahead of a trough forecast over the eastern Bering
Sea. Warmer than normal conditions are likely across the Big Island of Hawaii,
associated with above normal observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in
surrounding waters. Near normal temperatures are favored for western Hawaii,
where SST anomalies are not as robust.

A mid-level trough and associated strong surface low pressure is forecast over
the Mississippi Valley early in the period. This trough is forecast to progress
eastward with time, resulting in an expansive area of elevated above normal
precipitation chances across much of the eastern CONUS. Confidence is high
(greater than 60 percent chance) for above normal precipitation across the
Tennessee Valley and adjacent areas of the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and
Mississippi Valley, where surface low pressure is predicted early in the period.
Above normal precipitation is also favored along central and northern portions
of the West Coast, ahead of a predicted trough offshore. Below normal
precipitation is favored for portions of the Northern Rockies, in response to
predicted ridging extending from west-central Canada. Above normal precipitation
is slightly favored for parts of the Southwest and adjacent areas of the
southern Rockies and High Plains, tied to the potential development of a weak
southern stream trough. An active pattern is likely across much of Alaska, ahead
of a predicted trough over the eastern Bering Sea. Confidence for above normal
precipitation is greatest (more than 50 percent chance) for parts of the south
coast of the Mainland and adjacent areas of Southeast Alaska, where enhanced
moisture flow is most likely. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for
parts of the Big Island of Hawaii, consistent with raw precipitation amounts
from the ensemble means.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8

Forecast Confidence for the 6-10 Day Period: About Average, 3 out 5, due to
fairly good model agreement among todays model solutions offset by continued
uncertainty regarding the evolution of troughing over the North Pacific.

8-14 Day Outlook for Fri Nov 06 2026 - Thu Nov 12 2026

During the week-2 period, the trough off the West Coast of North America
consolidates and deepens as it slowly approaches the Pacific Northwest and
Southeast Alaska. This evolution supports increased downstream ridging across
the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Conversely, heights are generally
forecast to lower across the eastern CONUS with time as a trough progresses
across the Southeast and slowly weakens. As the ridge consolidates over central
Canada, renewed downstream troughing is possible along the East Coast toward the
middle or end of the period. Ridging is forecast across northeastern Alaska
ahead of persistent troughing over the Bering Sea and the southwestern Mainland.
Positive mid-level height anomalies are generally forecast to overspread Hawaii
from west to east as time progresses.

Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS. The warmth
across the West is mainly in response to the potential for increased ridging
ahead of the deepening trough off the West Coast. Confidence is high (greater
than 60 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across the north-central
CONUS tied to predicted above normal mid-level heights associated with the
expansive ridge over Canada. The greatest uncertainty is across much of the
Eastern CONUS, where probabilities of above normal temperatures are less than 40
percent, due to the potential for increased troughing as time progresses.
Confidence is also low (less than 40 percent chance of above normal
temperatures) across parts of the Southwest and Southern High Plains, due to
potential influences from a weak southern stream trough. The forecast pattern
favors a prolonged period of above normal temperatures across most of Alaska.
Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent across much of the
eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska, ahead of a persistent trough forecast
over the Bering Sea. Above normal temperatures are favored for eastern and
central portions of the Hawaiian Islands, due in part, to observed positive SST
anomalous in surrounding waters. Near normal temperatures are favored for
western Hawaii, where SST anomalies are not as robust.

As the trough deepens over the eastern Pacific, an increasingly active pattern
is likely across much of the West Coast of North America. Probabilities of above
normal precipitation exceed 50 percent from Southeast Alaska to coastal areas of
the Pacific Northwest and northwestern California, where enhanced moisture flow
is most likely. Above normal precipitation is modestly favored across the
eastern Seaboard tied to a departing trough and associated surface low pressure
early in the period. In the wake of this trough, increased surface high pressure
is forecast, supporting increased chances of below normal precipitation across
much of the Northern Plains, the northern half of the Mississippi Valley, and
the western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is modestly favored for much
of the southern Plains, where some models are showing the potential for weak
southern stream troughing. An active period is likely across much of eastern
Alaska, ahead of a predicted trough over the eastern Bering Sea. A weak tilt
toward above normal precipitation is indicated for the Big Island of Hawaii, due
to potential cyclonic flow consistent with raw precipitation amounts from the
ensemble means.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
11

Forecast Confidence for the 8-14 Day Period: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
fair model agreement, offset by uncertainties surrounding the evolution of a
transitional pattern across much of the CONUS.

Forecaster: Handel

Notes:

The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 19, 2026

Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (d-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20251009 - 20171012 - 20221109 - 20201108 - 19981011

Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (d-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20251008 - 20201108 - 19891026 - 20221109 - 19981012

6-10 Day Table for Wed Nov 04 2026 - Sun Nov 08 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

8-14 Day Table for Fri Nov 06 2026 - Thu Nov 12 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS
NFDPMDMRD.

$$