352
FXUS06 KWBC 131901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri June 13 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2025

A moderately amplified 500-hPa height pattern is predicted across North America
during the 6-10 day period. Ridging is favored across the central and eastern
CONUS, with dynamical models trending more amplified with this feature compared
to yesterday. The 0z ECENS depicts a 594-dm ridge axis centered across the
Tennessee Valley by the end of the period. Shortwave troughing is forecast to
shift southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska to the northwestern CONUS leading
to some erosion of positive height anomalies across the West. The manual height
blend depicts a broad region with +30 meter positive 500-hPa height anomalies
over much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Closer to normal heights are
indicated across northern New England due to a persistent trough across eastern
Canada. Below-normal heights are predicted over the northwestern CONUS tied to
the aforementioned shortwave troughing moving into the region. Anomalous
ridging is forecast across Alaska, with some weakening toward the end of the
period. Above-normal heights are favored across the state, with a +120 meter
positive height anomaly in the manual blend to the south of the Alaska
Peninsula.

The broad, anomalous ridge predicted over most of the CONUS favors above-normal
temperatures for most of the CONUS, further supported by good agreement in the
reforecast and uncalibrated model guidance. The largest above-normal
temperature probabilities (exceeding 70 percent) are forecast for portions of
the Central and Southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Enhanced chances for
near to below-normal temperatures are indicated across the northwestern
quadrant of the CONUS, associated with troughing forecast to move closer to the
region. Near- to below-normal temperatures are favored across southern Texas
due to a potential influx of tropical moisture from the Bay of Campeche
favoring more cloud cover and reduced daytime warming. Above-normal
temperatures are favored for most of Alaska, tied to above-normal 500-hPa
heights. Across Southeast Alaska, the reforecast tools tilt warm while the
uncalibrated tools are significantly colder. Therefore, a slight lean to
enhanced chances for near- to above-normal temperatures is indicated across the
region due to support from the analogues. Relatively warm sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs) surrounding the Hawaiian Islands favor warmer-than-normal
temperatures for the state, and is supported by the consolidated reforecast
tool.

Near- to above-normal precipitation is favored across most of the east-central
CONUS tied to frontal activity and enhanced chances of convective precipitation
typical of this time of year. In addition, near the northern periphery of the
mid-level ridge, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) typically bring enhanced
precipitation to the Northern Tier, further enhancing the probabilities.
Probabilities for above-normal precipitation are increased above 60 percent
across extreme south Texas tied to enhanced tropical moisture from the Bay of
Campeche. Incoming troughing supports enhanced probabilities of above-normal
precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region.
Elsewhere, areas that are far enough removed from the main storm tracks,
including much of the Interior West and the the Eastern Seaboard from the
Mid-Atlantic southward, are favored to have near to below-normal precipitation.
Precipitation tools have trended wetter across Alaska compared to yesterday,
likely tied to the weakening ridge later in the period. However, the ECENS
reforecast and uncalibrated tools, as well as the analogues, support drier
conditions across the southeastern part of the state. Therefore, a slight tilt
toward enhanced below-normal precipitation probabilities remains over the
region, with above-normal precipitation predicted for much of northern and
western Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is forecast across Hawaii.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
a fairly stable mid-level pattern across the forecast domain, and good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2025

A similar mid-level circulation pattern to the 6-10 day period is forecast over
the CONUS during week-2. A broad ridge remains depicted to the east of the
Rockies, with a weakness in height anomaly field persisting across the western
CONUS, although the associated troughing is predicted to weaken. The week-2
manual height blend depicts positive height anomalies across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies, with a +60 meter positive height anomaly center depicted
across the Midwest tied to the increasing amplification of the ridge axis
compared to yesterday. Near- to below-normal heights are forecast across the
Northwest. Ridging remains predicted across Alaska, but with a southward shift
in the positive height anomaly field with time and some indications of a less
amplified pattern or weak troughing emerging across the Bering Sea and Alaska
later in the period. Above-normal heights remain favored across the state for
the period as a whole, but with weaker amplitude positive anomalies compared to
the 6-10 day period.

Reforecast, raw, and bias-corrected temperatures generally favor above-normal
temperatures for a majority of the CONUS during week-2, consistent with
mid-level ridging. The greatest probabilities of above-normal temperatures
exceed 70 percent over portions of the Ohio Valley and Appalachians underneath
the positive height anomaly center and supported by strong signals in the ECENS
guidance. Below-normal temperatures are favored over much of the northwestern
quadrant of the CONUS tied to a weakening mid-level trough. For most of
Mainland Alaska, near- to above-normal temperature probabilities remain
elevated, consistent with mid-level ridging over the state. However,
probabilities are reduced compared to the 6-10 day period due to the potential
breakdown of this ridge later in the period. Uncalibrated tools support
enhanced near- to below-normal temperature chances across Southeast Alaska.
Positive SST anomalies continue to favor above-normal temperatures throughout
Hawaii.

Above-normal precipitation probabilities are elevated across much of the
Northern Tier tied to troughing over the Northwest and potential for enhanced
MCS activity overtop the ridge axis downstream. Chances for above-normal
precipitation are also increased across portions of the Four Corners, Southern
Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley, tied to the expected influence of
tropical moisture originating from the Bay of Campeche or over the East
Pacific. Near-normal precipitation is favored from the Central Plains to the
Tennessee Valley where a typical summertime convective pattern is forecast.
Below-normal precipitation chances are increased over areas further displaced
from the mean storm tracks including parts of the Great Basin and along the
Atlantic Coast. Lowering mid-level heights across Alaska favor a slight tilt
toward enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities across much of
Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians. Below-normal precipitation chances remain
elevated across Southeast Alaska. Above-normal precipitation remains favored
across Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
continued good agreement in the models regarding the mid-level pattern
evolution, and stronger signals for ridging over the eastern U.S.

FORECASTER: Thomas Collow

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 19.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19790611 - 19790623 - 20060627 - 19780603 - 19800619


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19790612 - 19790625 - 20000602 - 19790620 - 19780601


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 19 - 23 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 21 - 27 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$