591
FXUS06 KWBC 182001
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Tue November 18 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 - 28 2025

At the outset of the 6-10 day period, the 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian
ensembles depict several shortwave features across the CONUS resulting in a
rather complex 500-hPa height pattern. Generally, ridging is predicted across
the East, with positive height anomalies extending back into parts of the Great
Basin and California, and weakening troughing across the Southern Plains. Deep
ridging amplifying across Alaska favors additional troughing developing across
the CONUS by the second half of the period. Dynamical models are quicker with
this feature compared to yesterday, and depict a progression of the trough axis
toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by day-10, and a subsequent erosion of
initial ridging. Today`s manual 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend depicts weaker
positive height anomalies across the East compared to yesterday. Near-normal
heights are forecast across the Central and Southern Rockies and Plains, with
below-normal heights favored across the Northern Rockies and Plains.
Above-normal heights extend from the West Coast through Alaska, with a +240
meter height anomaly center to the north of the Mainland over the Arctic Ocean.
Near- to slightly below-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across Hawaii as
troughing amplifies across the central Pacific.

Initial positive temperature anomalies greater than +10 deg F across the
Northern Plains are forecast to be replaced with negative temperature anomalies
by the end of the period, but the front-loaded warmth continues to favor
above-normal temperatures for the period as whole. Higher probabilities
(greater than 60 percent) for above-normal temperatures are highlighted across
the Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic, and Tennessee Valley where warmer
temperatures are more likely to persist throughout the period. While
below-normal temperatures are favored across the northwestern CONUS, some
warming is possible across the Southwest as the troughing progresses further
eastward allowing for transient mid-level height rises over the region. This
outcome is more evident in the GEFS, but also has support from the ECMWF
reforecast tool and teleconnection tool. Therefore, near- to slightly
above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the Central and Southern
Great Basin into the Southwest. The building ridge over Alaska supports
increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures over much of the Mainland
and the Aleutians, with slightly elevated chances of near- to below-normal
temperatures across the southeastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii consistent with the
reforecast consolidation tool.

Tied to increased southerly flow, enhanced precipitation is forecast across the
south-central CONUS, with the dynamical models depicting the largest
precipitation totals across eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Ark-La-Tex region, justifying at least a 50 percent chance for above-normal
precipitation. The incoming trough and broadly enhanced cyclonic flow emerging
across the CONUS favors enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation over
most areas, with higher chances across the Northern Rockies tied to a lower
precipitation climatology and an active northern stream. The quicker
progression of the troughing may result in cyclogenesis across the east-central
U.S. around the end of the period, with some colder air potentially leading to
wintry weather concerns over some areas. Near- to slightly below-normal
precipitation is favored across portions of California supported by both the
reforecast and uncalibrated ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. Ridging supports elevated
chances of below-normal precipitation across eastern and northern Alaska.
Above-normal precipitation probabilities are increased over southwestern Alaska
tied to enhanced onshore flow being displaced further north. Elevated odds for
above-normal precipitation are forecast across Hawaii tied to increased
troughing in the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to
generally good model agreement, offset by a predicted transitional pattern
leading to uncertainty in the temperature forecast across the western CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - DEC 02, 2025

The pattern transition discussed during the 6-10 day period is forecast to
continue to take shape throughout week-2. The week-2 manual 500-hPa height
blend depicts a +210 meter positive height anomaly center over the southern
Arctic Ocean to the northwest of Alaska, which teleconnects with more troughing
and negative height anomalies downstream over the CONUS. The ECMWF, GEFS, and
Canadian ensembles depict troughing progressing across the CONUS during the
early to middle part of the period. The ECMWF and Canadian ensembles reload the
troughing across the West later in week-2, although the GEFS is less bullish
with this scenario and shows relatively higher heights over the West. Compared
to yesterday, the manual blend depicts a much larger area of below-normal
heights across the western and north-central CONUS. Near-normal heights are
indicated across the Eastern CONUS extending back through the Southern Plains.
Strongly positive height anomalies are indicated across all of Alaska
underneath ridging. Near-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across Hawaii,
with below-normal heights more likely to the north of the islands tied to
troughing.

The highest confidence in the week-2 temperature outlook is across the
southeastern CONUS where ridging favors above-normal temperatures persisting
longer into the period. Dynamical models depict a progression of colder
temperatures into much of the northern and central CONUS during week-2. The
week-2 temperature guidance supports elevated probabilities for below-normal
temperatures over the northwestern and north-central CONUS and near-normal
temperatures further east across the Great Lakes and Northeast where warmer
temperatures predicted at the outset of the period skew the period mean
upwards. There is also less confidence across the Southwest where reloading
troughing would favor below-normal temperatures, but the GEFS reforecast tool
depicts more warming as troughing shifts further inland, with some support from
the teleconnection tool. Therefore, only a slight tilt toward enhanced
below-normal temperature probabilities is maintained across the Southwest.
Above-normal temperature probabilities are increased over Mainland Alaska and
the Aleutians underneath ridging. Below-normal temperatures are favored
downstream over southeastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska tied to surface high
pressure across western Canada. Above-normal temperatures remain forecast
across Hawaii.

Cyclonic flow across the CONUS during week-2 supports elevated above-normal
precipitation probabilities over most areas. An active storm track is likely
with several short waves ejecting out of the Rockies. Tied to the initial
trough progression, surface low pressure is possible across the Great Lakes and
Northeast early in the period, with the potential for reloading troughing in
the West supporting cyclogenesis across the central CONUS later in the period.
Several previous deterministic GFS and ECMWF solutions depict a swath of heavy
snow over some areas associated with these surface low tracks depending on
track and strength.The ridge axis across Alaska supports an uptick in near- to
below-normal precipitation probabilities across the state. Enhanced chances for
above-normal precipitation are forecast across Hawaii as a result of troughing
to the north of the state.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement regarding a colder pattern taking shape across the CONUS,
offset by uncertainty in timing and relatively warmer temperatures at the
outset of the period.

FORECASTER: Thomas Collow

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 24 - 28 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 26 - Dec 02, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$