813
FXUS06 KWBC 102002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Mon November 10 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 20 2025

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in excellent agreement that a highly anomalous
500-hPa ridge with large positive height anomalies (more than 300 meters)
becomes established over the Davis Strait and Greenland by day 6. To the south
of this anomalous mid-level ridge, an amplified 500-hPa trough is forecast
across the Canadian Maritimes and northwestern Atlantic. Multi-model ensemble
mean solutions agree that a vigorous shortwave trough tracks southeastward from
the Pacific Northwest to the southwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) from days 6
to 8. This trough and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies favor
below-normal temperatures throughout much of the western CONUS. The largest
below-normal temperature probabilities (more than 60 percent) are forecast
across southern California and the Desert Southwest where an unusually wet
pattern is expected during mid-November. Downstream of the southwestern CONUS
trough, southerly flow supports an increased chance of above-normal
temperatures for much of the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. The high
latitude blocking ridge over Greenland coupled with the amplified trough to its
south is likely to result in periods of anomalous northerly flow which tilts
the temperature outlook towards below-normal temperatures for parts of New
England.

An active pattern is likely across the lower 48 states as multiple shortwave
troughs progress from west-to-east underneath the high latitude blocking ridge.
On days 6 and 7 (November 16 and 17), a low pressure system and trailing front
are forecast to track from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Quickly
following this, the amplifying trough over the Southwest is likely to promote
low pressure development across the Great Plains by day 9. Therefore,
above-normal precipitation is favored for most of the central and eastern
CONUS. Due to the likelihood that the Central to Southern Great Plains along
with the Lower Mississippi Valley have two distinct periods of enhanced
precipitation, probabilities for above-normal precipitation are maximized for
those areas. An increased chance of above-normal precipitation is also forecast
for the western CONUS due to the amplifying trough and enhanced onshore flow
from the northern Pacific. The largest probabilities (more than 60 percent) for
above-normal precipitation are forecast for Arizona and New Mexico due in part
to the drier climatology during mid-November.

An amplified 500-hpa trough over the Bering Sea is likely to result in
anomalous southwesterly surface flow which supports an increased chance of
above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for a majority of
Alaska. The GEFS and ECENS depict near 3 inches of precipitation across the
Kenai Peninsula where above-normal precipitation probabilities exceed 50
percent.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures and above-normal
precipitation are favored for Hawaii.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement among the precipitation and temperature tools in a predicted
amplified longwave pattern.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 18 - 24 2025

The preferred ECENS and GEFS are in good agreement with an amplified 500-hPa
trough persisting over the western CONUS. The CMCE depicts a 500-hPa ridge
closer to the West Coast which is an outlier and its model solution was given
less weight in the manual blend. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast
to be prevalent throughout the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere as a
negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is likely to continue into the
latter half of November. Below-normal temperatures are likely to accompany the
persistent amplified trough over most of the western CONUS. Near normal
temperatures are more likely across parts of the Pacific Northwest where
onshore flow is expected to have a moderating effect on temperatures.
Downstream of the western CONUS trough, periods of southerly flow along with
positive 500-hPa height anomalies support an increased chance of above-normal
temperatures from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Above-normal
temperature probabilities decrease to the west across the Great Plains with a
lean towards below-normal temperatures across the High Plains, closer to the
amplified 500-hPa trough axis.

Similar to the 6-10 day period, the persistent amplified 500-hPa trough over
the West favors an active, wet pattern for the lower 48 states heading into
late November. Early in week-2, the potent shortwave trough over the Four
Corners region is likely to result in surface low development across the
Central or Southern Great Plains with a subsequent track northeastward. The
longwave pattern, predicted by the GEFS and ECENS, would favor a second low
pressure system forming across the south-central CONUS by the end of week-2.
Therefore, above-normal precipitation is favored for most of the central and
eastern CONUS. Forecast confidence in the week-2 precipitation outlook is lower
east of the Appalachians as low pressure systems, emerging from the Great
Plains, are expected to weaken as they encounter the high latitude blocking
ridge and a subtropical ridge centered over Cuba. The outlook calls for near
normal precipitation amounts for south Florida along with the portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Based on the consolidation (skill-weighted GEFS and
ECENS reforecast tools), elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities are
forecast across northern New England. Enhanced onshore flow from the northern
Pacific and an amplified 500-hPa trough favor above-normal precipitation
throughout the western CONUS with the largest probabilities (more than 50
percent) forecast in the drier climatology areas of Arizona, New Mexico, and
southeastern Colorado. There is excellent model agreement for a large positive
500-hPa height anomaly center (7-day average of 240 meters) over Baffin Island
and a teleconnection upon this feature supports the large spatial extent with
an increased chance of above-normal precipitation for much of the CONUS.

Southwesterly onshore flow favors above-normal temperatures statewide for
Alaska. The enhanced onshore flow also supports an increased chance of
above-normal precipitation for most of Alaska with the largest probabilities
(more than 50 percent) centered across the Kenai Peninsula.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures
and above-normal precipitation are forecast for Hawaii. Positive sea surface
temperature anomalies also support above-normal temperatures, especially across
the northwestern islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools offset by uncertainty
in the temperature outlook across the southeast quarter of the CONUS and
diverging model solutions on the longwave pattern along the West Coast.

FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 16 - 20 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 18 - 24 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$