877
FXUS06 KWBC 161905
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed July 16 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 26 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based on the ensemble means
from the 0z GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models. The resultant manual blend
features highly anomalous mid-level ridges over the northeastern Pacific and
over the Chukchi Sea, with weak troughing squeezed in between over central
Alaska and the vicinity of the Bering Strait. A slightly stronger trough is
depicted over Alberta and Saskatchewan, extending southwestward across the
Pacific Northwest and the eastern Pacific. East of the Rocky Mountain states, a
strengthening anomalous ridge is predicted by the three ensemble means, with
the manual blend depicting maximum positive height anomalies of 60-90 meters
across much of the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and Midwest. In addition, a
broad 594-dm height contour is depicted over a bit more than the southeastern
quarter of the Lower 48 states. This Central and Eastern ridge is predicted by
todays model runs to be noticeably stronger compared to yesterdays runs.
Finally, a fairly weak anomalous trough is indicated over the
Newfoundland/Grand Banks region.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures for most of
the eastern Intermountain region extending east to the Atlantic Coast, with
maximum probabilities of 80-90% for a relatively small region centered just
east of the Ozarks. This is supported by the temperature consolidation and most
of the other temperature guidance, and is attributed to predicted anomalous
mid-level ridging and broad low-level southerly flow. The exception to this
large area of favored relative warmth is for favored below normal temperatures
over portions of the northern High Plains, Northern Rockies, far northern and
western Intermountain region, extending across the Pacific Northwest and
California, predicted to be under the influence of weak mid-level troughing
centered to the north. Farther north, troughing over the Central Interior of
Alaska and northern Bering Sea favors onshore flow into the Mainland, tilting
the odds towards below normal temperatures, while above normal temperatures are
favored for the entire southern coastline, on the northern fringes of a strong
mid-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. Over northern Alaska, relatively
cool east-northeasterly flow from the Arctic Ocean favors below normal
temperatures for most of that region. Warmer than average sea surface
temperatures in the Central Pacific favor above normal temperatures in Hawaii,
supported also by the Hawaii-CON and the auto-blend.

The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across
much of the northern CONUS, due to a low pressure system and accompanying
mid-level trough translating eastward across this region. During the first half
of the period, above normal precipitation is favored to overspread the northern
states as far east as the Upper Great Lakes region, with the storm system
continuing thereafter to traverse the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, Ohio
Valley, and Mid-Atlantic, before finally moving off the East Coast late in the
forecast period. Elsewhere, at the beginning of the 6-10 day period, a surface
anticyclone is predicted to slide eastward off the Northeast coast, with its
associated clockwise surface flow bringing onshore flow and precipitation
initially to the Southeast coast, with a gradual westward spread of the
precipitation shield across the eastern and central Gulf Coast region. Above
normal precipitation is favored across this region, with odds exceeding 40%
over the central and eastern Gulf Coast. This is also near the predicted
position of a weak stationary frontal boundary. The precipitation consolidation
forecast supports this pattern, as well as elevated odds for below normal
precipitation well removed from the primary storm tracks; that is, for portions
of the southern Plains, and the central and southern Intermountain West. In
Alaska, troughing over central Alaska and the northern Bering Sea favors above
normal precipitation for most of the state, except for near to below normal
precipitation being favored along the southern coast under the northern flank
of a strong mid-level ridge. For Hawaii, the consensus among forecast tools
ranges from relatively wet for the northwestern islands to relatively dry for
eastern parts of the Big Island.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5.  Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by some differences
among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 30 2025

Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a de-amplification of
the anomalous ridge over the Chukchi Sea, and a de-amplification and
retrogression of the anomalous ridge over the northeastern Pacific to the
general vicinity of the Aleutians. Only a weak reflection of the central
Alaska/Bering Strait trough lingers. Farther south, a weak trough (in the full
height field) is depicted just off the West Coast, and most of the downstream
CONUS is predicted to be dominated by widespread mid-level ridging, with a
60-90 meter maximum height anomaly over the Midwest. The expansive 594-dm
height contour envelops most of the region between the Four Corners and the
Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley. A weak trough continues over the southern
Canadian Maritimes area.

Elevated chances of above normal temperatures continue for the CONUS and are
favored to spread across most of the Intermountain West. Maximum probabilities
of 70-80% are focused on the general vicinity of the Ozarks. Small areas of
favored below normal temperatures are depicted over north-central California
and adjacent parts of Nevada, the western lowlands of Washington state, and the
northern tip of Maine, consistent with the automated temperature forecast.
Increased cloudiness associated with weakening onshore flow favors near to
below normal temperatures over the Alaskan Mainland, while surface high
pressure over the Arctic Ocean would favor chilly east-northeasterly flow over
the North Slope. Near to below normal temperatures are also favored over
Southeast Alaska, as 500-hPa heights fall in response to the retrograding
mid-level ridge towards the Aleutians. Hawaii continues to lean towards above
normal temperatures, consistent with the Hawaii-CON.

Odds tilt towards above normal precipitation along the southern flank of a
zonally-oriented 500-hPa trough over Canada, from the northernmost Rockies
east-southeastward across the northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and
over and just south of the Upper Great Lakes region. Any embedded shortwave
troughs passing through the westerlies may bring precipitation to this area, in
addition to low pressure systems, and thunderstorm clusters. Above normal
precipitation is also favored over most of the Gulf Coast region, as described
in the earlier 6-10 day section. A weak tilt towards below normal precipitation
is indicated for a fairly large portion of the Interior West, southern Rockies,
central and southern High Plains, continuing eastward to near the
Missouri-Mississippi confluence. Precipitation analogs derived from the manual
height blend support slightly higher odds (40-50%) for below normal
precipitation across the south-central High Plains region, near the center of a
significant mid-level ridge. The precipitation pattern in Alaska favors mostly
near normal precipitation, with only relatively small anomaly areas depicted.
Farther south, wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Hawaiian
Islands, with the exception of the Big Island where near normal precipitation
is favored.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by larger differences
among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical tools
relative to the 6-10 day period.

FORECASTER: Anthony A

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520713 - 19780720 - 19520708 - 19720717 - 19990714


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520712 - 19720718 - 19990715 - 19780721 - 19950630


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 22 - 26 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 24 - 30 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$