184
FXUS06 KWBC 291934
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed July 29 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 08 2026

The 0Z European ensemble (ECENS), 6z GEFS, and 0z Canadian ensemble (CMCE) mean
forecasts agree on the average large-scale circulation pattern over North
America for the 6-10 day period, with small differences between model forecasts
and a relatively stable pattern over most of North America during the period.
The models predict a 500-hPa ridge and positive height anomalies over the
Bering Sea that extend eastward into the western Gulf of Alaska and northward
along the eastern tier of the Alaska Mainland. Meanwhile, the period starts off
with mid-level troughing and near to below normal 500-hPa heights over western
central parts of Mainland Alaska. This trough lifts northeastward and
dissipates, leaving broadly above-normal heights across the state by the end of
the period. An entrenched mid-level ridge is predicted across most of the
contiguous United States (CONUS), with a height maximum over the Four Corners.
This feature may wax and wane slightly in strength with time, but it
essentially persists through the 6 to 10 day period. Farther east, a mid-level
trough in central Canada pushes southeastward, lowering heights toward normal
over the Northeast. There are some subtle differences in the models. The CMCE
mean shows a somewhat stronger ridge over the West by the end of the period
than the GEFS and ECENS means, and the ECENS mean expands the ridge eastward
into the central CONUS farther than the GEFS and CMCE means. These differences,
however, are relatively minor, and there is good consensus on the mean
large-scale pattern across and near North America.

The mid-level ridge covering most of the CONUS favors above-normal temperatures
across most of the CONUS. The only exception is in part of the northern Plains,
where raw and adjusted temperature guidance from the ensembles all favor
temperatures closer to normal. The best chances for above normal temperatures
(over 70 percent) are near the center of the mid-level ridge over Utah and
adjacent Nevada. Chances for abnormal warmth exceed 50 percent across the bulk
of the CONUS, with lower odds limited to the northern tier from the Mississippi
Valley westward, and part of the central Gulf Coast and adjacent Southeast.
With the mid-level trough in central Canada primarily remaining north of the
CONUS, the slightly lower heights evolving over the Northeast are not likely to
dramatically lower temperatures, and this is reflected in the official
forecast. Farther north, above-normal temperatures are also expected across
central and eastern Mainland Alaska as a mid-level trough over the western half
of the state lifts northward and weakens, leaving above-normal heights
statewide in its wake. Meanwhile, a 500-hPa ridge centered just south of Hawaii
is expected to result in above normal temperatures there. The chances for above
normal temperatures are greatest in southeastern parts of the state, closer to
the mid-level ridge and higher sea surface temperature anomalies.

The stable 500-hPa ridge centered over the Four Corners Region favors subnormal
precipitation across the Northwest, northern Great Basin, the northern Rockies,
and the northern High Plains. The best odds for drier than normal weather (over
50 percent) cover areas from central Idaho through eastern Oregon and northern
Nevada. Farther south, the mid-level pattern is favorable for significant
incursions of tropical moisture into the Southwest, especially near the
Arizona/Mexico border, where chances for above-normal precipitation exceed 60
percent. Farther east, the slow expansion of the mid-level ridge into the
Plains is expected to initiate a drying trend later in the period, resulting in
near normal 5-day totals. The forecast is more uncertain farther east, where
guidance is inconsistent and ensemble-derived tools are unremarkable. In
aggregate, the tools marginally favor above normal precipitation, and this is
reflected in the forecast. Guidance also tilts toward above-normal
precipitation across central and northern Alaska while subnormal totals are
slightly favored over Southeast Alaska, a pattern consistent with a blend of
the Consolidation and analogs based on the forecast mid-level pattern. In
Hawaii, there is a slight tilt of the odds toward above-normal temperatures
statewide, consistent with the Consolidation and a blend of model guidance.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, 25% of Today`s operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and
10% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa height pattern, offset by some
inconsistency in the temperature and precipitation tools primarily in the
eastern CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12 2026

Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period all predict a similar mid-level
circulation pattern to the 6-10 day period forecast, with some eastward
expansion or progression of the western CONUS mid-level ridge. Overall, models
are a little more pronounced with mid-level ridging moving into the Plains
relative to yesterday. North and east of the mid-level ridge center, the
500-hPa flow is generally zonal, with slightly above-normal 500-hPa heights
expected throughout the CONUS and across Alaska. Some weak mid-level troughing
is possible near the eastern CONUS downstream from the mid-level ridge, but the
support for this is tenuous at best, and it is not expected to significantly
change prevailing conditions in the northeastern CONUS in any case.

Above normal temperatures are expected throughout the CONUS under broadly
above-normal 500-hPa heights. With mid-level ridging expected to push into the
Plains, the best chances for abnormal warmth (60 to 70 percent) cover the
southern half of the Plains and adjacent portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and central Rockies. Persistent subtropical ridging is expected to
continue near the South Atlantic States, resulting in 60 to 70 percent chances
for above-normal temperatures from Florida through the coastal Carolinas as
well. Odds are somewhat lower for above-normal temperature (33 to 40 percent)
from the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes, generally consistent
with ensemble-derived temperature tools. Most of Alaska is expected to be
warmer than normal as well under above-normal 500-hPa heights, excepting only
the Aleutians and the northern and western fringes of the Mainland. Across
Hawaii, mid-level ridging and above-normal sea surface temperatures are
expected, particularly across southeastern parts of the state, and the
temperature forecast favoring above normal temperatures reflects this, with the
best odds for warmth on the Big Island.

The expansion or displacement of the mid-level ridge into the Plains favors an
increasingly strong monsoonal circulation, with the reforecast ECENS
precipitation output being the most robust with this signal. The forecast again
favors wetter than normal conditions in the Southwest, with increased chances
for surplus precipitation stretching farther north than during the 6-10 day
period, into southern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. The likelihood of above
normal amounts exceeds 50 percent near from the lower Colorado river basin
northward into eastern Nevada and southwestern Idaho. Farther east, the
increasing influence of the mid-level ridge in the central CONUS favors below
normal precipitation through the Plains, with the best odds (over 40 percent)
stretching from the lower Rio Grande River through central sections of Texas
and Oklahoma. The ECENS, CMCE, and GEFS means all show less than 0.25 of
precipitation falling on this region during week-2. Farther east, the tools
show weak signals and are in fair agreement nominally favoring above normal
precipitation in the east-central and northeastern CONUS, with near normal
amounts elsewhere. Model guidance is also in fair agreement across Alaska and
Hawaii. Below normal precipitation is somewhat favored across the southern tier
of the Mainland while the odds tilt slightly toward surplus precipitation
across the northern tier of the state. Hawaii also has slightly enhanced
chances for above normal precipitation, consistent with a blend of the tools
and the Consolidation.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 60% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 15% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
good model agreement on the mean 500-hPa height forecast, offset by the
uncertainties inherent to a low amplitude summer pattern and differences among
precipitation tools.

FORECASTER: Rich Tinker

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19930730 - 20010805 - 20220713 - 20140724 - 20190731


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20010708 - 20030711 - 20250727 - 20160722 - 20140724


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 04 - 08 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 06 - 12 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$