105
FXUS06 KWBC 141902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon July 14 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 24 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the
ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models. The resultant manual
blend features a fairly amplified ridge over the North Pacific and Chukchi Sea
and weak troughing over the Bering Sea, another weak trough over Alberta and
Saskatchewan, and weak ridging over much of the eastern Contiguous U.S.
(CONUS). Model solutions de-amplify the North Pacific ridge fairly quickly
during the 6-10 day period and amplify ridging over the eastern CONUS. However,
model solutions diverge steadily with respect to this pattern shift, making for
less forecast certainty later in the forecast period.

Positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern CONUS and only minimal
troughing over Canada favors above-normal temperatures across most of the
CONUS, with probabilities exceeding 60% for much of the Tennessee and Middle
Mississippi Valleys as well as portions of the Southern and Central Plains.
Odds tilt slightly towards below-normal temperatures for portions of the
northwestern CONUS, under the influence of troughing to the north, and along
the California coast, where enhanced alongshore winds potentially increase
marine layer intrusion over land. For Alaska, troughing over the Bering Sea
favors onshore flow into the Mainland, pushing the odds towards below-normal
temperatures, while above-normal temperatures are favored for Southeastern
Alaska, just downstream from the strong ridge over the North Pacific. Warmer
than average sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific indicate
above-normal temperatures with Hawaii, supported also by the Hawaii-CON and the
autoblend.

The Bermuda high has weakened somewhat over the last month as depicted in model
ensembles, however a steady stream of Gulf moisture advecting into the Great
Plains and Southeast U.S. continues to be favored, tilting the odds towards
above-normal precipitation for much of the eastern CONUS. Weak troughing over
the Canadian Plains provides some instability and slightly enhanced odds
(40-50% percent chance) of above-normal precipitation along the U.S.-Canada
border, while a weak stationary frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. and
potential tropical cyclone (TC) genesis near the northern Gulf Coast similarly
enhances the odds of above-normal precipitation for portions of the Southeast
U.S. Troughing over the Bering Sea results in onshore flow for the Alaska
Mainland, favoring above-normal precipitation, while for Southeastern Alaska a
less favorable alongshore flow pattern pushes the odds slightly towards
below-normal precipitation. The consensus among forecast tools indicate
above-normal precipitation for Hawaii, with the exception of the Big Island
where near-normal precipitation is preferred.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 34% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 33% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very
good agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and
statistical tools is offset by diverging model solutions late in the period.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 28 2025

Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a continued
de-amplification and retrogression of the 500-hPa North Pacific ridge that
began during the 6-10 day period as well as building positive height anomalies
over the central and eastern CONUS. The troughing along the U.S.-Canada border
is weaker in week-2, resulting in close to zonal flow over North America.
Onshore flow continues for the Alaskan Mainland, maintaining chances of
below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.

Chances of above-normal temperatures continue for the CONUS and are favored to
spread well into the Great Basin. Enhanced probabilities (exceeding 60% chance)
continue for much of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley and at
least a 50% probability is almost universal east of the Rockies and as far
north as the Great Lakes. Increased cloudiness associated with onshore flow
would tend to favor below-normal temperatures over the Alaskan Mainland, while
above-normal temperatures continue to be likely for Southeastern Alaska, likely
due to ridging upstream. Hawaii continues to lean towards above-normal
temperatures, consistent with the Hawaii-CON.

Odds tilt towards above-normal precipitation for most of the eastern CONUS due
to continued availability of tropical moisture from the Gulf region, and along
the U.S.-Canada border due to a weaker but persistent trough over central
Canada. Probabilities of above-normal precipitation are slightly enhanced for
portions of the Gulf Coast where the potential for TC activity continues into
week-2. Continued weak troughing over the Bering Sea tilts Alaska towards
above-normal precipitation. Above-normal precipitation also continues to be
weakly favored for the Hawaiian Islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 34% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 33% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools is offset by diverging model solutions as the period progresses.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520707 - 20060725 - 19880728 - 19780718 - 19770627


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520707 - 19520712 - 20060724 - 19880727 - 19780718


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 20 - 24 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 22 - 28 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$