807
FXUS06 KWBC 242002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Mon November 24 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 04, 2025

Multiple outbreaks of anomalous cold are forecast to enter the lower 48 states
during the next two weeks as a high amplitude 500-hPa ridge develops over the
northern Pacific and Alaska by the end of November. The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE
remain consistent and in excellent agreement that Arctic high pressure shifts
southeastward to the north-central contiguous U.S. (CONUS) on day 6, November
30. Towards the end of the 6-10 day period, another reinforcing surface high is
expected to expand southward from Canada. Below-normal temperatures are likely
from the Northern Great Plains south to the Red River along with the Middle to
Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. The largest below-normal temperature
probabilities (more than 70 percent) are forecast for the Northern to Central
Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley where the multi-model ensemble
solutions depict 5-day temperatures averaging more than 10 degrees F
below-normal. Anomalous cold is also expected to overspread areas west of the
Continental Divide with the greatest chance of below-normal temperatures
focused across the Southwest. The ECENS depicts a subtropical ridge
strengthening across the Southeast later in this period with 500-hPa heights
rising to more than 588 dm over Florida by days 9 and 10. This subtropical
ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies support an increased chance of
above-normal temperatures for the southeast quarter of the CONUS.

A couple of low pressure systems and trailing cold fronts are forecast to cross
the central and eastern CONUS which favors a widespread area with enhanced
above-normal precipitation probabilities. A front may become stationary across
the Tennessee Valley where above-normal precipitation probabilities exceed 60
percent. Upslope surface flow leads to larger above-normal precipitation
probabilities for the Northern to Central High Plains. The ensemble means favor
a shortwave trough digging into the southwestern CONUS early in the period,
supporting an increased chance of above-normal precipitation for southern
California, the Southwest, and Central to Southern Rockies. The drier
climatology results in above-normal precipitation probabilities maximized
across southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico. Due to the amplified
500-hPa ridge over the northeastern Pacific and offshore surface flow,
below-normal precipitation is likely across the Pacific Northwest and northern
California.

Enhanced southwesterly surface flow leads to an increased chance of
above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation throughout Alaska.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures and above-normal
precipitation are favored for Hawaii.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement and consistency on the longwave pattern among the ensemble mean
solutions.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 02 - 08 2025

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in good agreement with a highly amplified
full-latitude ridge over the Aleutians and Bering Strait and a broad anomalous
500-hPa trough across the higher latitudes of central and eastern North
America. The amplified ridge upstream over the Aleutians is likely to promote
another Arctic surface high shifting southeast into the north-central CONUS
around day 9 (December 3). Anomalous cold, associated with this surface high,
favors below-normal temperatures throughout much of the Great Plains, Midwest,
and Northeast. The largest below-normal temperature probabilities (more than 60
percent) are forecast from the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley east to northern New England where the ensemble means depict 7-day
temperatures averaging near 10 degrees F below-normal. The persistent
subtropical ridge favors above-normal temperatures across the Southeast and
along the Gulf Coast. The reforecast-calibrated GEFS and ECENS are warmer than
their uncalibrated model output for the western CONUS. Based on guidance
derived from a teleconnection upon the large positive 500-hPa height anomaly to
the south of the Aleutians, near-normal or slightly elevated below-normal
temperature probabilities are forecast across the Southwest, Great Basin,
Pacific Northwest, and California.

The week-2 outlook leans on the wet side for a majority of the lower 48 states
due to the amplified 500-hPa trough extending southwestward from Hudson Bay to
the southwestern CONUS. However, it should be noted that above-normal
precipitation probabilities are only slightly elevated and there is likely to
be a drying trend for the central and eastern CONUS as surface high pressure
becomes more expansive later in week-2. On day 8, a low pressure system is
forecast to track east across the Southern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi
Valley, and Tennessee Valley, where above-normal precipitation probabilities
are enhanced. Slightly larger probabilities (40-50 percent chance) for
above-normal precipitation are forecast downwind of the Great Lakes due to
lake-effect snow and also with upslope flow across the northern High Plains.
The ensemble mean solutions, especially the ECENS, depict the amplified 500-hPa
ridge shifting west from the northeastern Pacific to the Aleutians during
week-2. This would eventually lead to more onshore flow, and near to
above-normal precipitation is favored along the West Coast.

A transition from much above-normal to near or even below-normal temperatures
is expected for Alaska due to the westward shifting mid-level ridge and an
increasing chance for Arctic high pressure to affect eastern Alaska later in
week-2. Below-normal temperatures are slightly favored for parts of
southeastern Alaska, while the large positive temperature anomalies through day
9 results in a slight lean towards above-normal temperatures for southwestern
Alaska. A drying trend is likely for Alaska during week-2, but the wet start to
the period leads to slightly elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities
for much of the state.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures
and above-normal precipitation are forecast for Hawaii. Positive sea surface
temperature anomalies also support above-normal temperatures, especially across
the northwestern islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
agreement among the ensemble means on the longwave pattern offset by
conflicting temperature tools for the western CONUS and a predicted
retrogression in the high amplitude 500-hPa ridge over the North Pacific.

FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
December 18.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 30 - Dec 04, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   B    B
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Dec 02 - 08 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$