591
FXUS06 KWBC 061902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Sat June 06 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 16 2026

The 0Z GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE, remain in good agreement regarding the 500-hPa
height pattern over North America and the surrounding regions. A strong
mid-level ridge is forecast off the West Coast of North America with anomalies
exceeding 150 meters for the period mean. A weaker mid-level trough is forecast
to be progressing across the central CONUS. Ahead of the trough, additional
positive 500-hPa height anomalies and mid-level ridging are forecast over the
Eastern Seaboard. In Alaska, positive 500-hPa height anomalies are favored
associated with the ridge over the eastern Pacific. Negative anomalies are
located between the Aleutian Islands and Hawaii. However, near normal heights
are favored in Hawaii.

Above normal temperatures are favored along both the West Coast and East Coast
of the CONUS beneath mid-level ridging and associated positive 500-hPa height
anomalies. Surface high pressure off the East Coast should allow for return
flow bringing muggy conditions to the East. This would elevate heat index
values above the maximum temperature forecasts. Over the West, chances for
above normal temperatures exceed 70% over parts of the Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, across the central CONUS, mid-level troughing should bring
moderating temperatures. Below normal is favored across a broad swatch of the
Rockies, Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley. In Alaska, with strong mid-level
positive heights, much of the state is favored to see above normal temperatures
during the period. In Hawaii, above normal is favored for most of the
archipelago.

Below normal precipitation is favored along the West Coast with strong
mid-level ridging favored over the eastern Pacific. With mid-level troughing
progressing through the central CONUS, an associated frontal system could bring
enhanced rainfall as it moves through the region. Ahead of the front, warm and
muggy summer time conditions are favored and could bring elevated chances for
scattered daily thunderstorms. Therefore, a broad swath of the eastern U.S. is
favored to see above normal precipitation during the 6-10 day period. In
Alaska, above normal precipitation is favored across much of the Mainland,
consistent with statistical and dynamical guidance.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out 5, Good
agreement among the 500-hPa heights and temperature guidance is offset by the
less confident precipitation forecast.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 20 2026

During week-2, an amplified mid-level ridge remains forecast over the eastern
Pacific with positive anomalies extending into the western CONUS. Mid-level
troughing and negative anomalies are favored over the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes. Near normal 500-hPa heights are favored
over much of the remainder of the eastern U.S. The positive 500-hPa height
anomalies over the East Coast have mostly progressed off the Eastern Seaboard
for the week-2 mean. In Alaska, positive 500-hPa height anomalies remain
favored but there is a better defined trough over the Aleutians relative to the
6-10 day period bringing enhanced southerly flow into Mainland Alaska.

Above normal temperatures remain favored along both the East and West Coast.
Below normal temperatures are favored across much of the central CONUS. The
strong positive 500-hPa height anomaly over the eastern Pacific brings strong
chances for above normal temperatures during the period. Meanwhile, early
period warmth over the East maintains higher chances for above normal over the
region, than the mean 500-hPa height pattern would suggest. As the trough
progresses eastward, temperatures are favored to moderate with time. The
mid-level trough over the central CONUS is likely to bring cooler than normal
temperatures to much of the region during week-2 as a whole. In Alaska, above
normal temperatures are favored over much of the Mainland and Southeast Alaska.
Near Normal favored is favored along the southern mainland associated with
cloudiness from southerly mid-level flow. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures
are favored during week-2.

Below normal precipitation is favored over the northwestern CONUS and into the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley with strong mid-level ridging over
the eastern Pacific. Above normal precipitation is favored over the eastern
CONUS associated with the progression of the mid-level trough over the central
CONUS. In the Southwest, there are some indications for an early Gulf of
California surge event. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two
potential systems along the coast of Mexico. One or both of these systems could
help to enhance moisture into parts of the Southwest. These should be monitored
and their potential impacts could include dry lightning over the southwestern
CONUS. Above normal precipitation remains favored over much of Alaska with
continued southerly flow into the state. In Hawaii, above normal precipitation
is favored for the islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out 5, Good agreement
among the 500-hPa heights is offset by some differences among the temperature
and precipitation guidance.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 18.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20140524 - 19960602 - 20070614 - 20130528 - 20010608


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20140524 - 20010607 - 20130529 - 19960601 - 20230604


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 12 - 16 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 14 - 20 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$