Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FXUS06 KWBC 032027
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Tue November 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 13 2026
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts are in fairly good
agreement on the average large-scale circulation pattern over the North America
domain during the 6-10 day period. While these ensemble mean 500-hPa height
forecasts are generally similar, there are differences in the phase and
amplitude of the primary features resulting in some differences in model
temperature and precipitation forecasts. The manual height blend is based on 0Z
ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian model 500-hPa height forecasts, weighting the ECMWF
ensemble mean greater due to recent model skill. The manual blend indicates a
deep slow-moving trough over the Aleutians, southwestern Mainland Alaska,
northeastern Pacific and off the West Coast of the contiguous United States
(CONUS). Anomalous ridging with above normal heights is forecast over much of
the western and central CONUS. Meanwhile a trough is forecast along the Eastern
Seaboard. Below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the Aleutians,
Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, while above normal mid-level heights are
forecast across Hawaii near the eastern extension of a ridge forecast over the
central Pacific.
Above normal temperatures are likely across the West, due to anomalous ridging
ahead of the deep trough forecast over the northeastern Pacific. As this ridge
progresses eastward, an increasingly warm pattern is favored across the
north-central CONUS, with probabilities of above normal temperatures exceeding
80 percent across the Northern Rockies, the Northern Plains, and the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Farther to the south and east, a trough predicted over the
Eastern Seaboard reduces chances of anomalous warmth. Near normal temperatures
are favored over most of the Eastern Seaboard and much of the Southeast
associated with a trough predicted over the region, supported by most of the
dynamical temperature forecast tools. Above normal temperatures are likely
across much of eastern Alaska, ahead of the deep trough over the northeastern
Pacific. Near to below normal temperatures are more likely from the Aleutians
to the western Mainland Alaska, closer to the mean trough axis. Above normal
temperatures are likely across Hawaii, mainly in response to observed above
normal SSTs over much of the tropical Pacific, associated with the current El
Nino.
The positioning and strength of the cyclonic flow over the northeast Pacific
promotes an active pattern across much of the western and southwestern CONUS,
eastern Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska. Probabilities of above normal
precipitation exceed 60 percent across northern and central portions of the
West Coast. Above normal precipitation is also favored in parts of southern
Florida, ahead of the mean trough position predicted over the region. Near to
below normal precipitation is favored over the remainder of the CONUS,
supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. A slight tilt
toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for parts of western
Mainland Alaska, due to the predicted mean low level offshore flow. For Hawaii,
near normal precipitation is favored for the Big Island, while below normal
precipitation is slightly favored over Maui, Oahu, and Kauai, consistent with
an automated blend.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
fairly good agreement among today`s model height solutions, offset by some
differences among model temperature and precipitation tools.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 17 2026
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day
period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the
610 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. ECMWF based
tools were generally weighted more in the forecast, due to greater skill and
persistence of yesterday`s forecast. However, uncertainty increases in the
forecasts for several areas of the domain. The 8-14 day manual blend 500-hPa
height pattern shows a deep trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over
the northeastern Pacific and the West Coast. Residual cyclonic flow is forecast
in its wake over southwestern Alaska. Downstream ridging and above normal
500-hPa heights are forecast over the north-central CONUS. Farther to the
south, weak anomalous troughing and weak below normal 500-hPa heights are
predicted over the southeastern CONUS. Above normal mid-level heights are
forecast to continue across Hawaii, associated with broad ridging over the
central Pacific.
Above normal temperatures are favored across the CONUS associated with
anomalous ridging ahead of the deep trough over the northeastern Pacific. The
highest confidence (greater than 80 percent chance) for anomalous warmth is
indicated for parts of the Northern and Central Plains, and portions of the
Upper Mississippi Valley as the ridge consolidates over the area throughout
much of the period, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast
tools. Anomalous warmth is favored across eastern Alaska, due to anomalous
southeasterly low level flow ahead of a surface low predicted over the Gulf of
Alaska. Near to below normal temperatures are favored behind this surface low,
from the western Mainland to the Aleutians. Above normal temperatures are
favored across Hawaii, underneath predicted above normal heights and consistent
with expansive above normal SSTs associated with the current El Nino.
As the trough over the eastern Pacific slowly approaches the West coast, an
active pattern is likely across much of the western and south-central CONUS as
well as eastern Alaska. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50
percent over most of California and parts of southwestern Nevada and western
Arizona, where enhanced moisture flow is most likely. Above normal
precipitation is modestly favored across parts of the Southeast, tied to a
departing trough, supported by most of the dynamic precipitation forecast
tools. Increased chances of near to below normal precipitation are favored
across the remainder of the CONUS associated with ridging and above normal
500-hPa heights. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for
parts of western Mainland Alaska, due to predicted low level offshore flow.
Near to below normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, consistent with an
automated blend.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
fairly good agreement among today`s model height solutions, offset by some
differences among model temperature and precipitation tools.
FORECASTER: Luke H
Notes:
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 19.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20161029 - 20221110 - 20001014 - 20081102 - 20001024
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20221110 - 20161028 - 20001027 - 20081103 - 20151107
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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