368
FXUS64 KMRX 162327
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
727 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 726 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Very hot conditions continue into Monday, especially south and
  central valley areas.

-Showers and storms will move through the area on Monday, and
 some may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary
 threat.

-Drier and not quite as hot mid week, then chances for showers
 and storms increase again Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

It remains hot across the area and tomorrow will be another hot
day. Surface dew points have mixed out enough that heat index
values are struggling to reach 105, and this may occur again
Monday. However, will keep the heat advisory over portions of the
south and central west of the mountains as it is for now.

A few isolated showers or thunderstorms remain possible across
southwest VA and the NE TN mountains this afternoon, but the models
keep things suppressed overall. There is a low threat that a cell
could become strong enough to produce strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall. Some CAMs indicate remnants of an MCS could
potentially clip portions of southwest Virginia overnight. Given the
overnight timing the severe threat looks limited, so if this occurs
the potential for flooding would be the main concern especially if
training were to occur along a slow moving outflow boundary.

For Monday, models show a weak summertime front moving toward us
later in the day as weak upper level short wave energy approaches.
Showers and storms will fire ahead of this boundary. Given MLCAPES
likely in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, high PW values, steep low
level lapse rates, and around 25 to 30 kt of effective shear, there
is potential for organized clusters of convection that may produce
damaging winds Monday afternoon and/or evening. Models have been in
flux on how the lower levels of the hodograph will look as the
convection moves in, but right now the threat of a brief tornado
looks very low but non-zero. Given the wet soils across much of the
area especially northeastern half, any prolonged or repeated rounds
of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding as well.

Models generally show drying for the Tuesday into Wednesday time
frame behind the weak frontal boundary, although a few still have
some isolated weak convection around Tuesday mainly east and
mountains. Both days will still be on the hot side, but the heat
should be less oppressive than what we have seen this weekend.

By Thursday into the weekend, heights fall again over the region as
the upper level eastern US trough deepens.  Chances for showers and
storms will increase again with temperatures trending down a bit
lower with highs near seasonal normals for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A few storms moving
across northern KY will try and make a run towards the TRI
airport late tonight, but expect they`ll dissipate before they
make it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  99  75  95 /   0  40  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  95  73  91 /   0  60  50  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  94  72  91 /   0  50  30  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  89  69  86 /  20  80  50  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Monday for Anderson-
     Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-
     Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99