Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
936 FXUS64 KMRX 061112 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 712 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 641 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - A cold front Tuesday into Wednesday will bring chances of rain and storms back to the region. - Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm; 5 to 10 degrees above normal. More seasonal readings are anticipated by the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Upper level ridging will become suppressed today, replaced by troughing across the northern tier of the country. Increased return flow and persistent Gulf moisture unleashed northward, will bring rain chances back to western and middle TN today. It`s possible a stray shower or sprinkle, much like yesterday for some, could occur this afternoon. For most, it will be another dry day with increasing clouds, humidity, and continued warmth. The approaching lowering heights aloft will bring a welcomed cold front to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. One more day of highs in the 80s until the rest of the forecast reads in the 70s, especially in the valley. Rainfall amounts will be greatest closest to Kentucky and West Virginia. QPF totals drop closer to the Southern Appalachians and southeast TN. It`s possible over an inch of rain could be seen from the upper plateau, valley, and into upslope areas of southwest VA. Small parts of the forecast area exhibit D0 on the drought monitor released just before the end of last month. Following the FROPA, Thursday and Friday, additional shortwaves may keep rain chances around. Once past that, it`ll be another dry weekend with much lower humidity and cooler temperatures under strengthening NE US surface high pressure and a closed low overhead. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 May be a few sprinkles/light showers around especially CHA, but these are not expected to be impactful. There is a low chance of MVFR cigs moving into CHA for a few hours early and then again late in the period, but right now the probability looks too low to warrant inclusion. Will go with a VFR forecast all sites for the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 68 83 68 / 10 10 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 64 82 67 / 0 10 30 80 Oak Ridge, TN 83 64 81 66 / 10 20 40 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 60 80 64 / 0 10 30 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...99