319
FXUS64 KMRX 241735
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1235 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Gusty winds tonight across the east TN mountains and foothills.
  Wind Advisory in effect tonight into Tuesday.

- Low probabilities for a few strong to severe storms Tuesday
afternoon and evening, mainly across the southern TN valley.

- Drier and colder for Thanksgiving.

- Temperatures moderate by the weekend, with another potential rain
maker moving in by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Winds:

Tonight, winds begin to increase across the east TN mountains as the
850mb strengthens. A low-end mountain wave event is probable due to
favorable cross mountain wind direction, a low-level inversion, and
a cold wedge on the leeward side of the Appalachians. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for the east TN mountain zones and will be
in effect from midnight tonight through 4 PM Tuesday. Wind gusts
from 40 to 50 mph are expected across the highest peaks as well as
mountain wave prone locations such as Camp Creek in Greene County,
TN. Winds should fall below advisory criteria later on Tuesday
afternoon and early evening.

Storms:

Showers and a few storms begin to spread into the area by Tuesday
morning in response to an approaching shortwave and cold front. Any
thunderstorms that occur will be elevated early in the day due to a
low level inversion that is in place from the surface up through
900mb. The main threat with any stronger storm during this time will
be isolated damaging straight line winds. By late Tuesday afternoon,
NAM soundings show the low level inversion eroding across our
southern areas, resulting in surface-based instability. If any
storms become surface-based, then a low risk for an isolated tornado
will be in place across the southern TN valley and southwest NC due
to the favorable shear that will be in place. Again, this is a
conditional risk based on surface-based instability developing. The
main timeframe of concern is from roughly 18Z through 00Z. Areas
northward, central valley and north, should keep the inversion in
place through the event, which would prevent any tornado threat.
However, isolated straight line damaging winds are still possible.


Rainfall:

Widespread measurable rainfall is expected with this system between
Tuesday and Wednesday. The highest amounts are expected across the
central and southern TN valley and southwest NC where around 1 inch
of rainfall is expected. Around 0.5 inches is expected for northeast
TN and southwest VA.

Rest of the forecast:

By Wednesday afternoon, showers will diminish as the cold front
passes. High pressure building out of the Central U.S. will settle
in by Thursday, ushering in colder, drier Canadian air beneath a
deep trough over the East. Thanksgiving and much of the holiday
weekend should feature dry conditions, with highs mainly in the 40s
Thursday and Friday. Another system may approach late in the
weekend, around Sunday, though confidence remains low at this range.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day and
tonight, with increasing high and midlevel clouds. Rain and MVFR
vis/cigs are expected to spread into CHA tomorrow morning, likely
around 12Z. TYS and TRI will have rain in the last few hours of the
TAF, but a downslope winds should keep conditions prevailing VFR.
LLWS will also develop after 12Z as a low level jet strengthens
above a surface temperature inversion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  70  55  62 /  70 100  80  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  68  55  60 /  40  90  90  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       52  65  52  60 /  60  90  90  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  65  54  60 /  20  80  80  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
     Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DGS