889
FXUS64 KMRX 112326
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
726 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 722 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected through next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The pattern through much of this forecast period will feature a high
amplitude ridge in the mid/upper levels extending from TX toward the
Great Lakes, and a trough off the Atlantic coast. A surface high
over Ontario will extend southward across the OH/TN VAlley region.
This will be a dry pattern for East TN in a deep north to
northwest flow. For tonight and tomorrow, some broken high cloud
cover will spread into our eastern sections, associated with the
coastal low off the NC/SC coast. Some moisture around 850 mb may
spread over the mountaintops into NE TN and SW VA tomorrow, but
conditions will be too dry and stable above that level to sustain
any rain showers.

Temperatures through this forecast period will be seasonable and
steady, with highs each afternoon in the 70s and lows each morning
in the 40s and 50s.

Next weekend, the upper ridge may finally start to progress
east of our area as a trough drops into the Plains, which may allow
for some rain chances to arrive near the end of this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

There is a low confidence potential of VFR/LIFR early Sunday
morning due to steam fog off Boone Lake. Probability too low to
include in the TAF.

Otherwise, VFR conditions with north/northeast winds during the
day with gusts over 10 knots. Some mid-level clouds expected at
TRI Sunday morning as a system moves across the coastal areas of
the Carolinas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  78  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  76  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       49  76  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              48  73  50  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH