Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
414 FXUS64 KMRX 111502 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1002 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1001 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Light snowfall accumulation possible across the north Friday. - Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday. Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 Just sending a quick update to allow winter weather advisory to expire on schedule. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1159 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 The colder temperatures expected are lagging behind a bit even though the cold front has moved through and winds are out of the northwest now. Currently, the coldest temperatures are in SW VA, where snow has been reported the last couple of hours. NWly flow paired with low-level moisture through the later morning or early afternoon hours today, will provide what`s necessary for NW flow or upslope flow snowfall across the Southern Appalachians, northeast TN, and southwest VA. Guidance hasn`t really deviated much, even from 24 hours ago. Still expecting 1 to 3 inches with up to 4 inches across the highest peaks. Over the next couple of hours this morning before sunrise, convective like snow showers will be possible which may bring decent accumulation in a short period of time. Much colder air from aloft has yet to move in, which will increase the mid-level lapse rates. Narrow bands of snowfall are possible, according to recent CAMs runs. Winds dropped off during the afternoon hours in the lower elevations, but hung on in the higher elevations. At the time of this discussion and issuance, the Wind Advisory will expire at its posted time of 1 AM EST. Winds across higher terrain have considerably dropped off over the past couple of hours. Following the snow`s exit later today, a brief cool-down can be expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing cloud cover. This won`t last long for some, as a persistent low in the model runs the past couple of days, has hinted at a quick clip of light precipitation Friday, mainly snow, north of the TN state line. The current total snowfall forecast calls for a few tenths to just over an inch of snow. Highest peaks may see closer to 2 inches from this short-lived event. Not expecting too much in the way of impacts. The next anticipated event comes this weekend with a pretty substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into Monday. Confidence isn`t quite there yet on what precipitation the area may see, as it is struggling to grasp a system over the Gulf around the same time as a system to the north. Late Saturday into Sunday, a fairly strong Arctic high will dive down from Canada, peaking near 1045 mb over the Northern and Central Plains. A pressure gradient will form over our area, which will develop gusty conditions Sunday. The "good" news so far, is that the strongest winds will not line up with the coldest temperatures later that night/Monday morning, so we may escape much colder wind chills. Still, Sunday even during the day will struggle to reach freezing, for many, and with the winds will make it feel 10 degrees or more colder. Winds hanging on over the highest elevations, however, may bring below zero feel-like temperatures. Once we warm Monday, we begin to recover quickly with return flow from the west and southwest developing again. The strong high will weaken as it eventually moves east of us early next week, providing the return of warmth. We will also stay dry for more than a day early next week with ample sunshine. We continue to warm even into mid to late week, around the time period the next system is forecast to arrive. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 At TRI, scattered snow showers will be in the area for the next few hours, and may drop vis/cigs to MVFR at times, possibly IFR with heavier snow showers. Cigs should prevail at MVFR levels until the afternoon. TYS will have cigs on the low end of VFR through early afternoon. CHA will be scattered to clear through the day. Clouds increase again in the evening, but should stay VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 33 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 32 54 33 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 42 31 53 30 / 10 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 27 46 30 / 0 50 30 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...DGS