401
FXUS64 KMRX 291124
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
724 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Satellite fog product and area observations are showing patchy fog
development primarly near area waterways. Have added fog in these
areas through early morning. Some of the fog will be locally
dense.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Key Messages:

1. A slight moderation in temperatures this weekend before
another cool down Monday into the rest of next week.

2. Dry for the next couple of days before precipitation creeps back
into the area from the south on Saturday and especially Sunday.
Afternoon and evening scattered activity appears to return during
the new work-week.

Discussion:

We`re situated on the northwest flow side of troughing over the
NE U.S. and broad ridging over the west. Surface high pressure and
a weak frontal system moving in from the north, will help keep
things dry the next couple of days. It is also helping to suppress
the Gulf stationary boundary to our south. Through the weekend,
those generally west of I-75 to I-40 and up through I-81, will
most likely experience a dry weekend. The Southern Appalachians
and parts of the southern valley and plateau will have isolated to
scattered activity try to move in. Return of some instability in
the form of increased humidity, as well as shortwaves within the
flow, will promote a more favorable environment for showers and
storms.

Monday (Labor Day) and the rest of the forecast period can be
defined by the influence of a reinforcing broad trough over the
area. Greater chances of afternoon showers and storms return to
the entire forecast area, cooler temperatures under much more
cloudy skies, and lower heights aloft. Either right at the end or
just beyond our current forecast period, will be something to
watch with a deepening trough and potentially stronger cold front
to move in and drop our temperatures even further for the first
weekend of September. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Some fog has developed around Boone Lake with TRI reporting
scattered 200 feet. There remains a low probability of low-cloud
and fog at the TRI terminal through 13Z.

Otherwise, areas of mid and high clouds expected later today and
overnight mainly across TRI and TYS. Overall, VFR conditions.

Surface ridging will keep winds light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  62  86  63 /   0   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  56  81  56 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH