Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
439 FXUS64 KMRX 022352 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 652 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 643 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 - Dry weather next two days before increasing precipitation chances late Thursday into Friday. - Low to medium chances for light snowfall across southwest Virginia Friday. - Very low probability of rainfall this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 A dreary day is locked in for the rest of today, with HREF depicting perhaps some holes in the low stratus deck as northwest flow cascades over the Plateau into the valley. The good news is the rain has dissipated, and while light drizzle is present on radar, not observing any either here or at regional airports. Tonight will be colder but likely still low level clouds hanging around. Left fog out after looking at model soundings, but higher elevations may see freezing fog as they interact with low clouds. A short break in the wet weather for the next 36 to 48 hours or so before a coastal low slides across the Gulf and southeastern states, while a powerful 150 knot upper jet exists to our north. Upper level forcing will create light precipitation late Thursday through Friday, with some questions about p-type existing, especially Friday morning over far northeastern Tennessee into southwest Virginia. The Euro brings saturation quicker Friday morning and has a narrow window of snow across southwest Virginia, but the GFS is drier then. NAM depicts a solution closer to the Euro, but the lowest 2 km of atmosphere is very very close to the 0C isotherm, small changes either direction may produce a short all snow bout or wintry mix before precipitation concludes later on Friday. LREF probabilities are a similar mixed bag. For now keeping with the NBM`s advertisement of up to a half inch of snow, with the Euro more aggressive. Over the weekend low probabilities of precipitation, most likely rain if anything, exist as a couple of vorticity lobes pivot through the various jet streams as an upper trough digs into the area. Another weak shortwave with additional precipitation is shown in both Euro and GFS for next Monday. Between the active pattern and the couple of troughs, temperatures will remain a December gloom and chill through the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 MVFR CIG will dominate much of the first part of the TAF period. It is forecast to clear/lift from south to north, so CHA will improve to VFR sooner than the others. Fog possibility was left from the 18Z issuance at TYS and TRI. Once day breaks on Wednesday, high pressure conditions can be expected with very light/variable winds, and mostly sunny skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 50 32 49 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 47 30 46 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 25 46 29 45 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 44 26 43 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wellington AVIATION...KS