515
FXUS64 KMRX 151109
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
709 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 707 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through this week.

- Most areas will remain dry this week, but the mountains will have
some low chances of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A large high pressure ridge will dominate the pattern across the
Southeast this week. The main impact of the ridge will be abnormally
warm temperatures continuing each day, with highs in the upper 80s
to mid 90s in most of the TN Valley. CHA`s streak of days reaching
90+ degrees (now at 42 days) will likely continue through the
weekend. The "good" news is that with dewpoints mainly in the 65 to
70 range each day, the Heat Index will stay under Advisory criteria,
but will still reach around 100 in the southern Valley.

Some isolated showers are possible in the mountains and SW NC today
through Thursday. Rain chances may increase slightly later in the
week as the ridge appears to weaken and shift west a bit, but
showers will still be limited mainly in the higher terrain areas.

Rain chances are highly uncertain next week as some models are
showing a tropical system moving into northern FL while a cold front
approaches the OH Valley from the north. Confidence is low that
these features will have run-to-run continuity this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the day with winds generally from
the southwest at around 10 kts and more southerly at CHA. FEW to
SCT clouds around 5,000 feet are expected with some ceilings
possible. Tonight, winds will be light with low-end chances for
fog at TRI again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             97  72  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  95  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       94  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  63  90  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW