302
FXUS64 KMRX 292306 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
606 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Windy conditions across the far east Tennessee mountains and
  foothills tonight. Gusts up to 45-55 mph.

- Light rain showers or sprinkles beginning around daybreak Sunday
  through noon. Higher elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix but
  impacts are forecast to be minimal or none.

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread
  rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast
  mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia,
  may begin as a wintry mix. All rain is expected Tuesday with a
  gradual changeover to snow late Tuesday across higher
  elevations. Limited accumulations at most.

- Dry again Wednesday and Thursday with precipitation chances
  increasing once again Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Satellite shows a good deal of mid and high clouds moving into the
region with sky becomie mostly cloudy. A storm system will move
across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through Sunday morning with
associated frontal boundary moving across the region. Since the
Gulf moisture return into the Region is limited due to ridging
into the southeast United States, rainfall amounts from this
system will be light.

REFS probabilities of snow and ice show low chances of a wintry
mix across the highest elevations. Little to no accumulation is
expected.

Main concern from this system will be mountain wave high winds
across the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills. 850mb jet
of 40-45 knots with decent ridging into the Carolinas will set the
stage for gusts up to 45-55 mph from late today through early
Sunday morning.

REFS gusts probabilities are fairly high for exceedance of 50 mph
but not for 60 mph. A wind advisory remains in effect.

Next moves into the Ohio and Tennessee valley for Monday night and
Tuesday. Jet dynamics with this system is quite strong over the
region producing a frontal boundary moving east Tuesday. Jet
dynamics produces strong fronto-genetic forcing. There are
differences in the strong of the low-level jet with the NAM the
strongest. LREF ensembles show a strong enough jet along with
ridging over the Carolinas to produce another mountain wave event
for the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills.

Widespread rain will produce rainfall amounts of 3/4 to 1 1/2
inches. Heaviest amounts Plateau and southeast Tennessee.

Cold air advecting behind this system may produce wintry
conditions for the mountains late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Dry conditions return for Wednesday and Thursday before another
storm system moves in for Friday and Saturday. There is a northern
and southern stream component to this system. The impacts will be
determined on the amount of phasing occurs with these two systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Radar shows rain over Middle TN moving east, but it is expected to
have a decreasing trend as it moves into East TN overnight. Cigs
are expected to drop to MVFR as it moves in, with light rain
lowering vis to MVFR for brief periods. Low level moisture lingers
through tomorrow, with IFR to MVFR cigs. Elected not to include
LLWS with this TAF issuance as the winds peak at 45 kt above the
2 kft AGL height tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             41  51  29  50 /  50  50   0  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  38  50  27  49 /  40  50   0  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       38  49  25  48 /  50  40   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              33  46  23  49 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DGS