Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
434 FXUS64 KMRX 062351 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 651 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Cloudy conditions persist for some this afternoon, with more sunshine breaking in through in the afternoon for many. - Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but accumulations and impacts should be negligible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Currently some portions of the region are finally getting a chance to see the sun, while others remain stuck under overcast skies with moisture remaining trapped near the mountains and a weak shortwave traversing through today. Still looks like most people should at least get to see blue skies for a couple of hours before sunset, or before clouds over Middle Tennessee move into the region. Temperatures are able to creep back into the 50`s for much of the eastern Tennessee Valley on Sunday before our next system moves through brining precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. On Sunday night our next chance of precipitation moves in and continues through Monday morning. This round of precipitation will be aided by a midlevel shortwave, but no strong surface level forcing is depicted by the models. Therefore, any precip should be fairly light over the region. Guidance continues to suggest that the heaviest precipitation stays south of the TN/NC state lines, but we could definitely see some creep up into southeast TN and southwest NC. By Monday morning cold air advection ramps up and temperatures drop behind the low level trough with a weak surface boundary developing, allowing for a switchover to snow for parts of our area. This will be mainly in southwest VA and the eastern TN mountains, but outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be light and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a inch or two accumulation through Monday evening mainly along the peaks of the mountains. Generally zonal flow throughout the atmosphere through the middle of the week with temperatures settling in around seasonal normals before our next system moves in towards the end of the week into the weekend. Looks like it will be fairly warm on the front end with a big cooldown behind the low and front expected to move through Thursday into Friday. We should see much colder temperatures behind the front for the upcoming weekend... possibly dropping into the teens for the weekend mornings. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Expect low clouds and/or fog to develop across northern Georgia later tonight and push northward into the KCHA area. Have concerns this could develop across the entirety of the TN valley but slightly lower dewpoints and the possibility of incoming high clouds give me less confidence at KTYS and KTRI, so will limit LIFR CIGS to KCHA tonight. All sites return to VFR levels by mid morning. Afterwards, incoming system and associated rainfall holds off until after 00z tomorrow evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 33 54 41 / 0 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 51 38 / 0 0 10 40 Oak Ridge, TN 48 30 50 37 / 0 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 28 49 33 / 0 0 10 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...CD