147
FXUS64 KMRX 060545
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine
breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas.

- Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light
  precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but
  accumulations and impacts should be negligible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low level moisture remains trapped under a strong inversion and
against the mountains in a westerly low to midlevel flow. Clouds
will remain in place through the night, until the passage of a
midlevel shortwave trough this afternoon. Most of the area should
have mostly sunny skies for a couple hours before sunset.

The next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday evening and
continues through Monday morning. Forcing with this system will be
mainly provided by a mid/upper level shortwave trough. There`s no
strong surface cyclogenesis in the southeast with this system, and
the wind field through the lower and midlevels is fairly weak. With
weak forcing, any precip should be light in nature. The latest NBM
PoP appear to have trended downward a bit, as the area of heaviest
rainfall passes to our south. On Monday morning, around 09Z or so,
cold advection develops and temperatures begin to drop behind the
850 mb trough and a weak surface front, allowing for a change to
snow. This will be mainly in SW VA and the East TN mountains, but
outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be light
and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of
northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a
inch or two accumulation through Monday evening.

Tuesday will be dry with mostly sunny conditions in a NW flow
pattern. Temperatures will get a bit warmer on Wednesday, into the
50s, with a slight increase in clouds with a dry shortwave trough
passage. A Clipper system brings a chance of rain on Thursday and
Friday, although model agreement is poor with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

MVFR or less is expected to continue at all of the sites for the
rest of the night. CHA has the lowest chance for IFR with TRI
most likely to hang on to IFR the longest into the afternoon.
This will be due to low ceilings more than visibilities, but some
IFR visibilities are possible. By the morning hours, CHA is
forecast to reach back to VFR with TYS likely returning to
primarily MVFR. By early afternoon, TYS is expected to reach VFR
with TRI likely not seeing this improvement until well into the
afternoon. Throughout the period, winds will be light and largely
variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             51  33  53  41 /   0   0  10  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  48  30  51  38 /   0   0  10  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       48  30  50  37 /   0   0  10  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              44  28  50  34 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW