Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
459 FXUS64 KMRX 280517 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 117 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 - Near normal temperatures and dry conditions continue today, but a notable warm up is expected Tuesday onward, with temperatures rising several degrees above normal. - Low rain chances start to creep in by Friday but Saturday and Sunday have potential for higher rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Great Plains and Midwest. A closed low is centered near New Jersey. At the surface, high pressure is over the Great Lakes extending southward to the Tennessee Valley. A Nor`easter is just off the coast of New Jersey drifting northward slowly. Dry, sunny weather with pleasant temperatures will continue today with highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. By Tuesday, the pattern starts to change with a ridge over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. A closed low over the Southwest is drifting eastward very slowly. At the surface, weak high pressure will be centered near the Carolinas. The system out west weakens late in the week near Texas. A warming trend will become noticeable by Tuesday with highs in the 80s for the rest of the workweek (around 90 degrees near Chattanooga). Dry weather will continue until low rain chances return on Friday. By Friday, a ridge will be centered near FL/GA/SC as a trough dips into the Ohio Valley. The position of the ridge will supply deep layer moisture from the Gulf. Rain chances start to increase on Friday but higher chances are likely on Saturday as a slow moving cold front moves into the region. The wet pattern will likely continue into Sunday but it is still pretty far out and things may change with the pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 It will be a mostly persistence forecast, with a VFR forecast all sites other than fog development at TRI late tonight that will persist into the early morning. Light winds to start will become north and northeast generally less than 10 kts during the day, then light again after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 53 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...99