661
FXUS64 KMRX 301131
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
731 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Key Messages:

1. Slight moderation in temperatures this weekend before another
cool down Monday into the rest of next week.

2. Mostly dry for valley locations through the weekend, with
isolated to scattered activity focused along higher terrain,
especially Sunday.

3. Scattered afternoon and evening precipitation chances return
Monday through much of the upcoming week. A potential stronger
cold front to watch for by the end of the week.

Discussion:

The chance for any sort of precipitation this afternoon and
evening has seemingly trended downward with each forecast package,
so only small areas of the Southern Appalachians may see anything
today; far northeastern reaches of eastern Tennessee and
southwest North Carolina. Elsewhere will remain dry with northerly
flow behind a recently moved through weak cold front. Much of the
valley and plateau will continue the dry trend even into Sunday.
Although, better chances for showers and storms exist during the
PM hours Sunday for the eastern higher terrain from southwest
North Carolina up into southwest Virginia. Return of some
instability in the form of increased humidity, as well as
shortwaves within the flow, will promote a more favorable
environment for showers and storms. Temperatures that we
experienced yesterday (Friday) will remain about steady through
Sunday with mid to upper 80s in the valley.

Monday (Labor Day) and the rest of the forecast period can be
defined by the influence of a reinforcing broad trough over the
area. Greater chances of afternoon/evening showers and storms
return to the entire forecast area, as well as cooler
temperatures under much more cloudy skies, and lower heights
aloft. As highlighted in the 6-10 Day CPC outlook, Thursday into
Friday, possibly into the weekend timeframe, will be our next shot
at cooler air. A closed low within a deepening trough will
translate SSE out of central Canada, bringing a much stronger cold
front to the area around the end of the work-week. Though the
deepest part of the low will remain well to the north, it`s
interesting to note that deterministic models hint at a possible
530s-540s dam closed low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Besides the potential of fog/low-cloud development off Boone lake
early this morning and Sunday morning, VFR conditions are
expected. Periods of mid and high clouds can be anticipated.

Weak pressure gradient will keep winds light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  63  85  65 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  61  84  62 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  60  84  61 /   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  57  79  57 /   0   0  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DH