832
FXUS64 KMRX 271637
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1237 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry and cool weather continues the next few days.

2. Very nice Saturday. Very low precipitation chances begin to
increase on Sunday afternoon into Monday, mainly across southern
portions of the forecast area.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure is located across the region today with a
mostly clear sky and dry weather. Temperatures have been about 10
to 15 degrees below normal. We`ll see a slight moderation in
temperatures over the next few days, but with longwave troughing
remaining across the Eastern CONUS, cooler than normal
temperatures will remain likely. As northwest flow continues aloft
and limited moisture return is expected, precipitation chances
remain low. A couple of weak upper-level disturbances are expected
to pass across the region over the next couple of days, but dry
air will limit any impacts to only an increase in mid-level to
upper-level clouds at times.

As we get into Sunday evening and Monday, low rain chances begin
to increase as we are within the influence of an upper-level low
and within the favorable synoptic ascent zones of a seasonably
strong upper- level jet streak across the Tennessee Valley and a
subtle inverted surface trough. Overall precipitation amounts
would be light, if they occur. NBM probabilities show 24 hour
rainfall probabilities of 40-50% on Monday for much of the area
receiving greater than 0.01" of rain. However, when the threshold
is raised to 0.1", this probability drops to around 30%. The
chance for greater than 0.25" is only 10 to 20% for most of the
region. In short, any precipitation would likely be light.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions prevail. With some higher clouds possible late
tonight and early Thursday morning, this is forecast to inhibit
fog development at terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  82  58  85 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              50  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...JB