Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
453 FXUS64 KMRX 151747 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 147 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Dry weather with near to above normal temperatures will continue into Saturday. - Numerous showers and a low chance for a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday. There is a also a low chance for strong winds in the mountains and foothills. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Surface high pressure will continue to build in from the north tonight into Thursday as the upper ridge to our west over the Plains slowly edges east. This will provide dry weather through the remainder of the work week and into Saturday, with near to above normal temperatures for this time of year. The axis of the upper ridge will drift off to our east by Saturday, and an upper trough to our west will be approaching along with a cold front. Models are not exhibiting good agreement or consistency on how much impact this system will have, with some showing a more negatively tilted upper trough with strong low level flow from the south out ahead of the front, and others showing a more positively tilted trough and a less energetic system. The latest runs seem to be trending toward the weaker solution. Until there is more clarity, for now just be aware that there appears to be a low chance (contingent on a stronger system with more southerly low level flow) that we will see the season`s first mountain wave event with strong gusty winds over some of the higher mountains and foothills mainly Saturday night into early Sunday. We will also see numerous showers ahead of the front, with ensemble data suggesting a 30-70% chance of any given area seeing a half inch or more of rain over a 24 hour period by the end of Sunday. There will be significant shear ahead of the front, however, current timing of the main forcing looks to be late Saturday night into early Sunday, and CAPE looks very limited. Latest data suggests a low chance for a few thunderstorms, and the severe threat currently looks very low for our area given the expected lack of convective energy in this scenario. High pressure will bring cooler and drier air into the area for Monday. Models are showing poor consistency/agreement for the latter periods, but right now indications are another cold front may bring showers for Tuesday followed by drier weather Wednesday. However, there is a high level of uncertainty for these latter periods. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Fog potential looks low and mainly at TRI for late tonight, and not high enough to warrant inclusion at this time. Will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites. Winds will generally be from the north and northeast at less than 10kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 75 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99