Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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693
FXUS64 KMRX 202323
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
623 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Above normal temperatures expected through the first half of
  next week.

- There will be showers and a few thunderstorms around at times
  today through Saturday, then drier weather Sunday and Monday
  before additional rain chances arrive Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

A weak surface front is located across our southern sections
today, marked by a dewpoint gradient between CHA and TYS along
with a few light showers, and will gradually lift northward
through the evening and overnight hours. Isentropic lift has been
mainly in Middle TN today, but that lift will shift east tonight,
bringing an area of showers to our area. Models show some weak
elevated instability, so a few rumbles of thunder may occur
overnight, mainly near the Cumberland Plateau. There will likely
be a lull in the precipitation early Friday as the front lifts
just north of our area, but a weak upper level short wave trough
approaching from the west will bring another round of showers and
a slight chance of thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night.
Again, instability looks to be weak but enough to warrant a
slight chance of thunderstorms being mentioned in the forecast.
The surface cold front and main upper trough axis will move
through our area on Saturday. Forecast wind profiles look stronger
with some shear present, and slightly higher (but elevated) CAPE.
Early morning timing of showers will limit severe potential, but
some strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rain may be
possible. There will not be any strong push of colder air into the
region behind the front, so temperatures will remain warmer than
normal through the weekend into early next week.

Dry conditions area likely Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds
over the region, then another system will bring a chance of rain
in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. A surge of colder air may
arrive in the area in time for Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Poor aviation conditions will continue as rain moves through the
region. Reductions to IFR are likely with even lower categories
possible. While rain will decrease later tonight, conditions will
still remain poor, due to low ceilings and/or fog. Conditions
should slowly improve through the day tomorrow with TYS and TRI
taking longer to recover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  74  62  74 /  40  50  80  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  72  61  69 /  70  50  90  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  71  60  68 /  70  60  90  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  67  57  64 /  80  80  80  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW