Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
258 FXUS64 KMRX 222334 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 634 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Mild temperatures continue through the weekend and the first part of next week. - Another system brings the potential for rain and wind across the area Monday night into Wednesday, followed by colder temperatures for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 A few light showers may linger tonight across the east TN mountains and foothills. West to northwest flow will provide orographic lift and will help squeeze out in lingering moisture that is trapped against the mountains. Dry and mild Sunday through Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Monday night into Tuesday is when our next system approaches. Rain, wind, and a few storms are expected with this system. Winds begin increasing across the east TN mountains and other high terrain locations Monday night as the 850mb jet begins to increase. The wind direction looks favorable to where we could have some mountain wave winds. Whether this occurs or not though, the 850mb jet will be around 40kts. This means that our highest elevations can expect to see wind gusts to around 40 mph due to the synoptic winds. If the pattern remains favorable for mountains waves, then these higher winds may impact our mountain wave prone locations, such as Camp Creek. Rain spreads in on Tuesday and soundings show elevated instability, so a few storms are expected as well. If we do see any strong storms, the main threat will likely be straight line damaging winds if the higher winds aloft can be brought down to the surface. Rain clears out Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the associated cold front. Colder and drier weather is expected for Thanksgiving and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 Despite fairly uniform bank of MVFR stratus clouds upstream, only medium confidence for MVFR skies late tonight across the region, with potential for SCT rather than pure overcast. Mainly persisted forecast from earlier. Past 14z or so, VFR skies are likely and predominant, with light northerly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 64 41 66 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 64 40 64 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 60 35 64 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...Wellington