060
FXUS64 KMRX 190502
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1202 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Above normal temperatures expected through the weekend, with
  warmest days today through Friday.

- Scattered showers with potential for a few thunderstorms during
  the overnight. Mostly dry for the PM hours today. Rain chances
  will begin to increase again Thursday evening, with more
  widespread rain coverage Friday night into Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

A shortwave will continue to progress through the Ohio Valley region
tonight. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be
noted along a surface boundary moving through central Kentucky, while
a few scattered showers can be noted within our CWA ahead of the
main line. Latest SPC mesoanalysis keeps a surface CAPE gradient to
our west, suggesting only elevated instability atop a strong surface
inversion as this activity moves through our forecast area. Overall,
the main concern will be some gusty winds between 30-40mph due to
strong H85 flow near 40kts being transported to the surface. Even
then, the sfc inversion should help limit that threat. Finally, Low
freezing levels near 10kft could also lead to small hail with any
embedded stronger cells.

The upper-level impulse will eject eastward throughout the day and
increasing H5 heights will lead to mostly dry conditions with well
above normal temperatures. Temperatures across the southern valley
are currently forecast to be just a few degrees shy of record daily
values through the end of the week.

For Thursday night, a shortwave lifting through the southern plains
and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley will increase isentropic
ascent and promote a return of precipitation chances. The highest
probabilities will be along the northern Plateau and in vicinity of
the KY/TN/VA border.

Vorticity maxima associated with a more prominent H5 shortwave will
traverse the region Friday night. Increasing surface cyclogenesis
within the Ohio Valley region will allow shower and thunderstorm
chances to become more widespread. This system will gradually depart
the region throughout Saturday as we begin to dry out late Saturday
into Sunday. Drier weather is forecast to continue into early next
week ahead of a stronger low pressure system expected to develop
across the Southern Great Plains and move our direction by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Scattered showers will move through early in the period. There will
likely be a few embedded thunderstorms but probability looks too low
at any given site to include in TAFs at this time. Probability of
MVFR cigs is greatest and most persistent at TYS and TRI, where MVFR
conditions could linger through late morning and into the afternoon
hours, but the probability has risen enough at CHA to include
several hours of MVFR cigs there as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  58  76  55 /   0  50  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  56  72  53 /   0  50  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  54  71  51 /   0  60  20  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  49  64  51 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99