627
FXUS64 KMRX 021809
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
109 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Strong gusty winds will be possible in the higher elevations
  and foothills of the east Tennessee mountains especially Tuesday
  night into Wednesday night.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase for the Tuesday night into Thursday
  period. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly Wednesday
  into Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026


We start the period with surface high pressure centered to our east
and northeast,  and an upper ridge building across the eastern
CONUS. This will sponsor a dry short term through Tuesday and it
will be warm for early November.

The mid week system still looks to bring a round of precipitation
primarily Wednesday and Wednesday night, and the potential for
mountain wave winds in the typical higher elevation areas Tuesday
night into Wednesday night.

A mid/upper level trough over the Plains Tuesday will slide east and
its axis will be centered over our region Friday.  A cold front will
approach from the west Wednesday before crossing our area Wednesday
night and likely exiting by early Thursday. Moisture will increase
ahead of this system, with rain moving in late Tuesday night and
Wednesday then continuing Wednesday night. Models indicate there
will be significant shear available, but convective energy still
looks very limited. Ensemble joint probabilities of at least 500
J/kg CAPE and 30kt bulk shear are very low Wednesday (around 10 to
20%) and primarily across the south. While a few thunderstorms will
be possible, the probability of severe weather still looks low.
Ensembles do show a medium chance (around 40% to 60%) for a half
inch or more of needed rain across most of the area. Higher amounts
are more likely across our south and west areas, with lower amounts
in the northern and central valley areas as downslope winds limit
rainfall on the front end of the precipitation in these areas.

Speaking of the downslope winds we will continue to see some gusty
winds (mostly sub-advisory) at times in the higher elevations and
foothills through Tuesday as southeasterly low level flow
continues, but the set up looks more favorable for significant
mountain wave enhancement of the winds Tuesday night into
Wednesday night with strong gusty winds possible in the normally
favored higher elevation and foothill areas of the east Tennessee
mountains. Right now it looks like advisory level winds are likely
to occur in these higher elevation areas primarily Tuesday night
into Wednesday night. No wind headlines at this point as a watch
does not look to be warranted, but an advisory will likely be
needed as we get closer.


Another short wave will deepen the mid/upper level trough over our
area Thursday night into Friday, but will have limited moisture to
work with.  We may see some additional showers Thursday into Friday,
but precipitation amounts will be on the light side.

Drier and slightly cooler air will move in for the weekend. Models
are in poor agreement at the end of the period so uncertainty is
high, but another mid/upper trough may bring showers again by
Monday.

 &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light, except at CHA where winds from the southeast
around 5 to 10 kts can be expected at times during daylight hours.
It also looks borderline for LLWS for several hours tonight at
CHA, but right now confidence that it will warrant mentioning LLWS
in the TAF is still too low to include.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  77  65  72 /   0   0  60 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  51  77  61  75 /   0   0  30  90
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  76  60  73 /   0   0  40  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  77  56  75 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99