624
FXUS64 KMRX 150723
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
323 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon into
the evening. Strong, gusty winds and brief, heavy downpours are
possible, but the threat for severe weather and flooding is
limited.

2. Warm and humid conditions are expected with most places rising
well into the 80s today.

Discussion:

Currently early this morning, a weak 500mb shortwave is centered
over the region with a very weak area of low pressure near the
Louisville, KY area. Throughout the day, this shortwave will lift to
the northeast with another shortwave approaching from the west later
today. A similarly warm and moist environment is expected with
fairly weak flow through the column and MLCAPE reaching around 1,500
J/kg by the afternoon. Diurnal convection is anticipated to develop
by the afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Mid-level
lapse rates of only 5 C/km or less, weak winds, and high freezing
levels will all limit potential for severe storms. Still, a few
storms could get tall enough to produce locally strong winds. Obs
indicate that most places saw less than 0.5 inches of rainfall
yesterday, which will limit the flooding potential. Some sources
indicate additional activity may arrive later in the night, but
thermodynamics will be even more limited.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

1. Daily showers and storms will continue through Thursday with
chances decreasing significantly by Friday and Saturday.

2. Some strong to marginally severe storms are possible Monday to
Wednesday with winds as the main threat. Isolated flooding is also
possible.

Monday thorugh Wednesday

At the start of the period, the 500mb shortwave mentioned in the
short term period is expected to be just west of the Mississippi
River Valley. Another area of weak low pressure will be developing
near West Tennessee. This shortwave will approach from the west
Monday into Monday night with increased moisture and similarly warm
conditions supporting convection. The subtle height falls look to
provide at least slightly better thermodynamics than today with
MLCAPE approaching 2,000 J/kg in some areas and mid-level lapse
rates to 5.5 C/km. There will also be a slight increase in winds
throughout the column, including veering from the surface to at
least 500mb. At this time range, many of the CAMs do not reach
beyond 00Z Tuesday. However, some indicate less activity on Monday
with a potential MCS to our west by 00Z Tuesday. In any case, the
environment would be more conducive for more organized or robust
convection in comparison to today. The potential for multiple rounds
and increased moisture will also provide a low-end flooding threat.

By Tuesday, the shortwave will move directly over the region and
also lift northward. Current indications suggest weakening winds
through the column and similar thermodynamics. This will depend on
how much destabilization occurs from previous activity. By
Wednesday, height rises are expected, along with continued
southwesterly flow and further WAA. With a decrease in moisture,
guidance indicates possibly more impressive mid-level lapse rates to
near 6 C/km and better overall instability. This may increase
potential for more robust convection.

Thursday through Saturday

Late in the week, there are varying indications of troughing
deepening to our north and maybe even a weak frontal boundary
arriving by Friday. This will shift the pattern to northwesterly
flow and advect drier air into the region, providing a reduction in
temperatures and rain chances by Friday. However, by Saturday, focus
will shift towards a strengthening 500mb high to our west, possibly
exceeding 5,940m later on. Very hot temperatures are likely on the
horizon, but it is unclear where exactly this high will set up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Variable aviation conditions are expected for the rest of the
night and into the early morning, especially at CHA where anything
from IFR to VFR is possible. For the other two sites, VFR is
likely to remain until around sunrise with MVFR setting in for the
latter half of the morning. By early afternoon, all sites are
likely to return to VFR with a persistent southwesterly wind
taking shape. From mid afternoon into the early evening, isolated
to scattered storms are expected with TYS currently most likely to
see activity move over the terminal. However, this is possible at
any of the sites with MVFR or less expected if it occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  70  86  71 /  60  40  70  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  70  85  71 /  60  40  80  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  69  84  70 /  70  30  80  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  67  84  67 /  70  40  80  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...BW