223
FXUS64 KMRX 140641
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Periods of showers and storms continue this afternoon and this
  evening. The threat of severe weather is low, but there is
  potential for localized flooding and isolated damaging wind
  gusts mainly in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee.

- A warming trend is expected today through the weekend. Saturday
  through Monday look to be the most hot and humid days. Heat
  Advisory criteria (heat index 105 degrees and above) is expected
  to be reached in most of the Tennessee Valley Saturday through
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the south and Midwest today and
tonight. A trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The
northwest flow pattern continues with storms forming upstream in the
Midwest then riding the ridge down through Kentucky and into
Southwest Virgina and Northeast Tennessee. This afternoon and early
evening showers and storms will be isolated to scattered in
coverage. CAMs did not do well Thursday with placement and coverage
of storms. CAMs are split for this afternoon whether coverage will
be isolated or scattered. Some guidance suggests a stronger ridge
this afternoon weakening later in the evening. Therefore, I cannot
rule out another storm cluster moving through Southwest Virginia and
Northeast Tennessee late in the evening like the past two nights. If
that happens, I think the intensity and coverage will be like the
past two nights and not a full blown MCS. SPC has Southwest Virginia
and Northeast Tennessee in a marginal risk for severe today and
tonight which seems appropriate. Flash flooding will continue to be
a concern in places that have received a lot of rain recently. At
the moment confidence is not high enough for a flood watch but one
may be issued later for Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee
if confidence in heavy rainfall increases.

Heat indices will be high again today especially in the Southern
Tennessee Valley where locations like Chattanooga may briefly reach
heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees heat index. There is better
confidence in needing a heat advisory for most of the Tennessee
Valley on Saturday and Sunday.

The ridge over the south will continue through this weekend bringing
isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly in the afternoon and
early evening hours. We may still get some late night northwest flow
storms in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. SPC has that
area outlined in a marginal risk for that possibility. Isolated
flooding issues will still be a concern this weekend in places that
have received a lot of rain.

By early next week, the ridge weakens and the trough dips into the
Tennessee Valley. By mid week, a ridge will move back over the
Tennessee Valley. NBM has the best chances of rain on Monday mainly
in the northeast half of the region. Otherwise, POPs look typical
for this time of year with mostly diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Activity has wound down for the night. Expect calm conditions
through the early morning with fog a possibility at TRI again.
Continued with what was inherited. Light SW winds develop later
today with scattered showers and storms possible at all terminals
for the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  77  97  77 /  20  10  20   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  75  94  76 /  20  10  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  75  94  75 /  20  10  20   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  71  90  71 /  30  10  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS