391
FXUS64 KMRX 031126
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
626 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Strong gusty winds will be possible in the higher elevations and
foothills of the east Tennessee mountains especially Tuesday night
into Wednesday night.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Thursday
  period. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly Wednesday
  into Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Our weather has returned to a mild & dry look thanks to the
combination of a sprawling surface high and upper level ridging
across the eastern CONUS. High temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 70s Tuesday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Our next
system arrives on Wednesday into Wednesday night that will bring a
mixture of strong winds in the mountains and foothills and another
round of beneficial rainfall across the region. Winds will begin to
increase Tuesday night and peak on Wednesday with gusts up to
advisory level possible.

The cold front passage will bring a round of showers with a few
thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Severe
weather is not expected. Forecast soundings show limited instability
(50-150 J/Kg) despite sufficient shear (30+ knots) present. This is
not enough to get meaningful convection development outside of
thunder chances. There will be a good surge of moisture associated
with this system as southerly flow advects higher PW air into the
region over the next 48 hours. QPF amounts generally range between
0.25" to 0.75" outside of a few locations with locally higher
values. At this point though any rainfall is beneficial given how
dry the last 4 to 6 weeks have been. Our system and front will exit
the area on Thursday leaving behind northwest flow and cold air
advection. This will keep afternoon PoPs present on Thursday with
isolated showers possible. Temperatures will begin to cool as we
head into the weekend, but the cold air advection isn`t that cold.
We`ll ultimately end up with seasonable temperatures with highs in
the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s Thursday through the weekend.
Winds will taper off on Thursday as the mountain wave set up
resolves. The drier, cooler airmass will lead to a rather pleasant
weekend with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures.

Looking at the end of the period, there will be another shortwave
trough that will drop out of the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Sunday
night into Monday that will support a chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected throughout the day
with clouds generally around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL.
Increasingly breezy conditions are expected, mainly at CHA, as
southeasterly winds increase. Heading into tonight, LLWS will
become more widespread as winds aloft increase significantly. It
is expected to be strongest and earliest at CHA before increasing
at the other two sites. Chances for rain will also increase around
CHA with potential for MVFR by the early morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             77  64  71  61 /   0  60 100  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  61  74  61 /   0  20  90  90
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  59  72  60 /   0  20  90  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  56  73  59 /   0   0  70  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BW