568
FXUS64 KMRX 040644
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Strong gusty winds will occur in the higher elevations and
foothills of the East Tennessee mountains tonight and Wednesday. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect.

- Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms expected today into
  Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

An approaching low pressure system over the MS Valley region will
bring gusty winds to the mountains and foothills and widespread
rainfall to our area today and tonight. So far, winds in the usual
wind-prone places in the mountains and foothills have been in the 35-
45 mph range. A few spots like Cove Mountain and Camp Creek could
reach 50-60 mph, but most areas in the Wind Advisory will stay under
50 mph.

Light precip has been spreading into the area already, but the
moderate rain associated with the cold front will arrive later in
the morning, around 12Z or so. There is some weak instability that
could allow for a few isolated thunderstorms, but overall, the
dynamics with this system are not particularly impressive. The front
will be slow to progress through the area as the closed upper low
moves over the Great Lakes, and this slow movement will allow for
some needed rainfall amounts of a half to one inch through Wednesday
night. Some spots with orographic enhancement could see higher
amounts. The preceding dry conditions make the chance of flooding
low, but it cannot be ruled out completely in some flood-prone or
urban areas.

Temperatures behind the front on Thursday don`t drop much, with
highs still in the 70s. A stronger push of cold air comes on Friday
night with the passage of a deeper upper trough and a secondary cold
front. This will bring highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

LLWS will be the main concern through the rest of the night into
the early morning hours as showers gradually move in from the
west, especially around CHA. MVFR is also expected at CHA before
rain spreads eastward to the other two sites. Reductions to IFR
are also possible at times with heavy rainfall due to more
intense showers or embedded storms. Winds will also increase at
the surface, especially at CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  61  75  52 /  90  50   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  62  73  52 /  90  80  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  60  73  49 /  90  80   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  60  73  53 /  70  90  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW