703
FXUS64 KMRX 152358
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
658 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 627 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Winds will be gusting to 30 mph during the PM hours in the
  valley, westerly wind gusts near 45 mph in the mountains
  Tonight. Windy Advisory is in effect for the far east Tennessee
  mountains for this evening and tonight.

- Light rain showers Tonight and early Sunday morning, primarily
  for northern TN into VA and the mountains.

- Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive later on Sunday into
  Monday. Dewpoints dropping into the upper teens and 20s will
  produce low afternoon relative humidity.

- Two potential rounds of rain later into next week with the
  greatest chance of significant rainfall for Friday and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Currently, a good deal of cloudiness across the area will diminish
in coverage late this afternoon and evening.

An upper trough and fairly deep surface low will move from the
Great Lakes to the northeast United States overnight and Sunday
morning. Associated frontal boundary will move across the region
by early/mid morning Sunday.

Latest HREF/REFS/and deterministic models show a strong 850mb
westerly jet of 40-50 knots moving across Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. The higher elevations, generally above 3kft, of
southwest Virginia and far east Tennessee mountains will likely
experience advisory criteria. REFS probabilities of 40 mph or
greater is highlighting the far east Tennessee mountains.

As the frontal boundary moves through early Sunday morning
scattered showers with light rain will move across the northern
sections of Tennessee, Plateau, southwest Virginia, and far east
Tennessee mountains. Forecast soundings depict a fairly shallow
moisture layer so rainfall amounts will be light at best.

Vertical profile and surface dewpoints dry out quickly Sunday with
clearing sky and low afternoon relative humidity. RH values
dropping into the upper 20s to 30s.

For Monday, surface ridging and dry airmass. REFS show high
probabilities of afternoon relative humidity dropping into the
20s. Wildfire danger concerns.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, a quick moving short-wave and jet
dynamics will move across the Ohio valley with increasing 850mb
jet producing some isentropic lift and chance of showers
especially along and north of interstate 40.

For the latter half of the week into next Saturday, an upper
trough and energy injecting from the southwest United States
toward the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will increasing the chance
of showers. The ensemble cluster analysis shows varying solutions
so confidence is quite low on how this system evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface winds are much less gusty now that it`s dark. Winds just
above the surface are increasing as a cold front approaches. Low
level wind shear is expected through late tonight, decreasing in
the early morning hours. LLWS will likely peak near 45 or 50 knots
near TRI. TYS and CHA will also see LLWS. Winds on the VAD radar
product are already starting to increase. Some gusts at the
surface will still be possible at times as well. Light showers
will move through late tonight or early morning mainly near TRI
and maybe TYS. A cold front will move through the region around
sunrise, followed by clearing skies and some low end northwesterly
wind gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  70  39  62 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  65  35  58 /  40  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  65  34  58 /  40  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  60  30  53 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...McD