205
FXUS64 KMRX 290551
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
151 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Key Messages:

1. A slight moderation in temperatures this weekend before
another cool down Monday into the rest of next week.

2. Dry for the next couple of days before precipitation creeps back
into the area from the south on Saturday and especially Sunday.
Afternoon and evening scattered activity appears to return during
the new work-week.

Discussion:

We`re situated on the northwest flow side of troughing over the
NE U.S. and broad ridging over the west. Surface high pressure and
a weak frontal system moving in from the north, will help keep
things dry the next couple of days. It is also helping to suppress
the Gulf stationary boundary to our south. Through the weekend,
those generally west of I-75 to I-40 and up through I-81, will
most likely experience a dry weekend. The Southern Appalachians
and parts of the southern valley and plateau will have isolated to
scattered activity try to move in. Return of some instability in
the form of increased humidity, as well as shortwaves within the
flow, will promote a more favorable environment for showers and
storms.

Monday (Labor Day) and the rest of the forecast period can be
defined by the influence of a reinforcing broad trough over the
area. Greater chances of afternoon showers and storms return to
the entire forecast area, cooler temperatures under much more
cloudy skies, and lower heights aloft. Either right at the end or
just beyond our current forecast period, will be something to
watch with a deepening trough and potentially stronger cold front
to move in and drop our temperatures even further for the first
weekend of September. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

There is a low probability of fog and low-clouds off of Boone Lake
early this morning, otherwise, VFR conditions at all TAF sites
through the forecast period.

Surface ridging will produce light winds throughout the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  62  86  63 /   0   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  56  81  56 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DH