Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
491 FXUS64 KMRX 270539 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1239 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Dry and colder through Saturday. - Rain returns by Sunday, with active/rainy weather continuing into the first part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025 Northwest flow is bringing colder air into the region under a deep upper trough settling into the eastern US as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday. Surface high pressure will keep things dry but on the cold side for Thursday through Saturday, with Friday likely to be the coldest of the three days with high temperatures are currently forecast to be around 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Another upper trough will be approaching from the west by Saturday night into Sunday, with a surface low tracking out of the Plains into the Great Lakes which drags a cold front through our area Sunday. This system will bring precipitation back into the forecast, and while thermal profiles currently look to support mainly rain, there is a very low chance for some brief wintry precip at the onset in a few spots. Gusty winds are also likely in some of the higher elevations and foothills of the E TN mountains ahead of the front Saturday night into early Sunday. For the early part of the week, models are in decent agreement that another upper trough will be digging in from the west with a surface low tracking by most likely to our south and east. The details of course are still very uncertain, but right now this system looks likely to bring mainly rain. Current ensemble data does suggest there is a low chance that wintry precipitation will mix in especially across the north and/or higher terrain, with the probability of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 1 inch topping out around 10% across the north. However, given the potential track to our south and east, the trends on this system will bear watching to see if the chance for wintry precip increases. High pressure will be building in along with drier air during the day Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle. A period of mid to high level clouds are expected to return during the overnight hours, clearing by late afternoon. Light winds between 5-10kts tonight. Gusts around 20kts return to TRI/TYS tomorrow afternoon. While there will be a weak 25-30kt LLJ atop the region tonight, LLWS criteria is not anticipated to be met. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 28 46 26 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 24 42 23 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 23 42 22 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 21 37 19 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99