945
FXUS64 KMRX 070650
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered this afternoon
  and evening.

- Drier conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered
  to widespread showers and storms possible Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The cold front has finally moved through the region and is over
northern MS/AL/GA. Currently, a ridge is centered over the Great
Plains and a trough is over the Northeast. The ridge will build into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today as the trough exits the East
Coast. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today (although still very
warm) with highs in the Tennessee Valley mainly in the upper 80s.
Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered this afternoon
mainly along and south of I-40 as an inverted surface trough forms
over Kentucky and Tennessee. SPC has general thunder for that area
and that seems appropriate.

Tuesday will be dry and a bit warmer with the ridge now centered
closer to the region over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Wednesday
will also be dry and warm but the ridge begins to flatten as a broad
trough moves into the Ohio Valley. Highs will be in the upper 80s
and lower 90s which is a few degrees above normal.

Confidence is increasing for scattered to widespread showers and
storms Thursday and Friday as a shortwave moves through the Ohio
Valley. A cold front will also move through the region around
Thursday night and may stall a bit to the south causing showers to
linger into Friday.

The weekend looks to start off with a weak trough possibly bringing
shower and storm activity Saturday before a weak ridge on Sunday
leads to drier weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid to high clouds at all terminals this morning following the
frontal passage. CONTD the inherited BR line at TRI this morning.
Guidance does pinpoint at MVFR CIG there for a couple of hours
after sunrise. ISOLD to SCTD shower and storm development later
today, primarily the best chance at TYS and CHA. Winds will be
light and variable at times with a general NE to SE direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  70  91  69 /  30  20   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  66  90  66 /  40   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  66  89  66 /  40  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  61  86  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KS