693
FXUS64 KMRX 151603 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1103 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1059 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Dry weather will continue through Saturday with a slight warming trend.
  Winds will be gusting to 30 mph during the PM hours in the
  valley, westerly wind gusts near 40 mph in the mountains
  Saturday night.

- Light rains arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning, primarily
  for northern TN into VA and the mountains.

- Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive later on Sunday
  into Monday, followed by two potential rounds of rain later into
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Quick update to issue a wind advisory for the far east Tennessee
mountains for this evening and overnight. Latest HREF/REFS/and
determinstic models show a strong 850mb westerly jet of 50 knots
moving across the northern half of the Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. The higher elevations, generally above 3kft, of
southwest Virginia and far east Tennessee mountains will likely
experience advisory criteria.

REFS probabilities of 40 mph or greater is highlighting the far
east Tennessee mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Unusually warm and breezy day on tap today ahead of a weak cold
front. Afternoon winds will increase and gust at times to 30 mph in
the valley, conditions may remain breezy overnight as model
soundings indicate the boundary layer may resist forming the
nighttime inversion. Aloft the 850 jet will increase with time to
40 to 50 knots tonight, which at elevation will bring gusty winds
to 35 knots, if not slightly stronger, overnight tonight, before
subsiding Sunday morning with FROPA. With the direction being
primarily from the west, not expecting any mountain wave component
to these winds, wind strength will be dependent on degree of
mixing to lower elevations, otherwise strong gusts at night should
remain at higher elevations. Meanwhile the cold front itself
isn`t impressive, with lack of sufficient moisture and forcing
reducing precipitation to light rain showers tonight, primarily in
northern locales.

After the front passes, another dry air mass moves in and Monday
afternoon relative humidities will be particularly low, potentially
<20% in the PM hours. Tuesday a weak shortwave will be passing by to
the north of us, with only light rain associated again for our
northern areas. Beyond Tuesday, guidance has increased the
temperatures for Wednesday, with the NBM sporting a 30% chance of
a daily max record in Chattanooga, if we can avoid cloud cover
complications. Mild weather persists for much of next week thanks
to stout westerly to southwesterly flow. By late week models are
beginning to converge on a potential deep trough solution ejecting
from the Plains, but significant uncertainties remain. Another
bout of rainfall seems likely at this range for some time next
Friday, and potentially a round of mountain winds, but anything
else we will need to wait to resolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Will see VFR conditions for much of the period, but some light
rain and/or patches of drizzle will be around especially north
late in the period, and conditions at TRI will likely drop to MVFR
near the end of the period and this may occur at TYS as well.
Winds will become gusty from the SW this afternoon, and this will
continue into the night at TYS and TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  59  71  40 /   0  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  59  66  36 /   0  30  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  58  65  34 /   0  30   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  55  60  30 /   0  60  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-
     Northwest Carter-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH