Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
557 FXUS64 KMRX 200604 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 104 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Fog early this morning. - Above normal temperatures expected into early next week, with the warmest days today through Saturday. - There will be showers and a few thunderstorms around at times today through Saturday, then drier weather before additional rain chances arrives by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 Fog is beginning to develop across the area tonight, and it may become dense across enough of the area for the issuance of an SPS or dense fog advisory. Will monitor and issue if needed. Low level flow will turn more southwesterly today ahead of an approaching low pressure system over the Plains that tracks east northeast and passes by to our north and off to our northeast by early Saturday. Increasing isentropic lift will bring an area of showers that will lift northeast later today into tonight. Models show just enough limited instability that a few rumbles of thunder may be embedded as well mainly south and central. There will likely be a lull in the precipitation early Friday, but then the upper level short wave and weak cold front will approach and move across with another round of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms later Friday and Friday night. There will not be any strong push of colder air into the region behind the front, so temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the weekend into early next week. Dry conditions area likely Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds over the region, then another system will bring a chance of rain in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 Fog early in the period, with IFR/LIFR conditions likely all sites. Will see improvement to VFR by later in the morning. Some showers will be around late in the period, and will carry a prob30 group all sites with showers and MVFR conditions. There is a very low chance of a thunderstorm as well, but the probability looks too low to include in the TAFs for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 61 75 63 / 60 60 40 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 60 73 61 / 40 90 50 90 Oak Ridge, TN 68 58 71 60 / 50 90 50 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 55 69 57 / 10 80 60 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99