305
FXUS64 KMRX 032331
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
631 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

- Dry weather with a gradual warming trend through much of the week.

- A system will approach the area late in the week and into the
  weekend with showers and a few storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The remaining stubborn low clouds over the area will continue to
erode, with sunshine winning out over even the last holdouts by
late this afternoon. We will likely see at least some low
cloud/fog developing again late tonight, but right now this looks
to be significantly less than what occurred early this morning and
primarily in proximity to lakes and rivers.

Upper flow across the region is becoming quasi-zonal, and this
pattern will hold for much of the week. A broad area of surface high
pressure will continue to drift east across our area and then off to
our east Tuesday night, with a dry and weakening frontal boundary
sliding in from the north and northwest Wednesday night before
stalling out. Another area of surface high pressure will build in
from the north Thursday. This pattern will provide dry weather for
our area with a warming afternoon temperatures.  High temperatures
should be few degrees above seasonal normals by Wednesday with only
a very slight dip on Thursday.

For Friday into the weekend the pattern becomes more active,
although the models are still struggling with the details as is
usually the case that far out. There is general agreement that an
upper level short wave trough will move across our area sometime
around the Friday night time frame, and a cold front will move
through as well. This system will bear watching as there will be
plenty of shear available (LREF mean deep layer shear of over 50kts
is shown), and if enough convective energy is available there would
be a threat for some strong to severe storms. Right now, the severe
threat looks low for our area as ensemble data keeps the more
significant convective energy to our south and west, and the LREF
joint probability of >250 J/kg of SBCAPE and >40kts of deep layer
shear is currently around 10% to 20% across mainly our southwestern
half Friday afternoon/evening. However, the exact evolution and
timing of this system is still uncertain at this time. For now we
will have showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast Friday
afternoon into Friday night.

Saturday will likely be dry behind this system, but a deep upper
trough is forecast to dig into the region Saturday night and
Sunday with a stronger cold front moving through along with
additional showers. As much colder air pushes in behind the front,
the precipitation may mix with snow showers over the higher
elevations before ending Sunday night. Monday will be quite cool
behind this front with temperatures well below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail this evening with MVFR cigs/vis expected to
increase around TYS and TRI late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Tempo LIFR vis/cigs will be possible at TRI for a few hours
Tuesday morning with a low chance of these occurring near TYS.
After morning fog dissipates by 14-15z, VFR conditions and light
winds prevail with high pressure across the region on Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             40  68  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  38  65  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       36  64  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              34  62  36  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...JB