Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
765 FXUS64 KMRX 021113 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 613 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 612 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 - Breezy mountain winds continue through midweek. - Above normal temperatures Through Wednesday. - Rain likely Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 132 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Current regional radar highlights scattered showers across the Tennessee Valley. Admittedly, these showers overachieved today with most locations receiving a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain. While it`s not much, it`s more impressive considering the weak forcing and low level dry air eating into QPF potential. Showers will continue to dissipate as the forcing weakens and shifts northeast overnight. Temperatures will fall into upper 40s and lower 50s tonight with mostly cloudy skies. Surface high pressure shifts offshore the Mid-Atlantic on Monday while the 500mb pattern becomes increasingly amplified. Mid-level ridging builds across the southeastern CONUS with low level warm air advection ahead of the mid-week system. This will set the table for a mild and dry start with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be the focal point of this forecast period as the mid/upper level trough over the central Plains moves east toward the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys. The associated cold front will slowly trek east on Wednesday with rain chances increasing primarily west of interstate 75 Wednesday afternoon. The beneficial rain will be fueled by an impressive surge of anomalous PWATs (+2 std) ahead of the cold front. Grand ensemble probabilities of 0.50"+ highlight medium confidence (40 to 60 percent) across the area. Rain chances spread further east Wednesday night with rain exiting the area by Thursday evening. Rainfall amounts will likely range from a quarter inch to a half inch with locally higher amounts possible. Thunderstorm chances will be low, but non-zero. MUCAPE values in forecast soundings are quite low so at most a few rumbles of thunder may be possible. The severe risk is negligible. This system will also bring the potential for mountain wave downslope winds. EPS and GEFS ensemble probabilities support sub-advisory wind gusts (35-45 mph) along the mountains and foothills Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. Post FROPA will see the return of drier, more seasonable airmass settle in for next weekend. Slight chance pops linger Thursday & Friday given northwest cyclonic flow behind the low pressure system, but most locations should remain dry. High pressure will begin to build in for the weekend and this should return drier weather and return more sunshine for the first full weekend of November. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 Some fog and low clouds have developed at CHA and could continue for at least the next hour or two. Otherwise, gradual clearing is expected through the day with increasing southeasterly winds at CHA and TRI. VFR is expected to prevail through tonight with limited fog potential. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 58 77 64 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 51 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 50 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 47 78 54 / 20 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...BH AVIATION...BW