895
FXUS64 KMRX 091100 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
700 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be around each day through next
  Saturday, with the afternoons generally the period of most
  activity.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to
  severe each afternoon at least through Tuesday (and possibly
  beyond), with damaging winds and localized flooding the main
  threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal
  for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A trough that was located across KY/West TN/AR last evening will
be making slow eastward progress today, crossing our area late in
the day. Weak dynamics with the trough will mean generally similar
sensible weather to what we have had for the past several days.
Weak flow, PWAT values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, and MLCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/kg point to another day with a potential for
scattered convection with a few storms becoming strong to
marginally severe, with strong winds the primary threat along with
localized flooding.

With the trough east of our area by Monday, we will be in a NW flow
through the mid to upper levels. This will bring some midlevel
drying and lower PW, but also greater instability with lapse rates
6.5-7 C/km and MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Shear will
continue to be lacking, but given the better thermodynamic profile,
storms on Monday and Tuesday could pose a slightly higher threat of
becoming strong to severe with damaging winds still the primary
threat.

For Wednesday onward, a ridge over the central US and a broad trough
over the western Atlantic will keep our area in a NW flow. Some
disturbances in the flow and/or upstream MCS remnants may bring
chances of showers and storms each day, with the northern areas
favored for the higher rain chances and potential for strong storms.
A frontal boundary may set up south of the OH Valley later in the
week, possibly into southern WV, which could be the focus for some
heavy rain and flooding concerns around Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Fog and low clouds in place across East Tennessee should lift to
VFR levels by 14z or so, with a FEW-SCT040 CU deck developing by
late morning across much of the region. Current radar imagery
suggests convection will develop by midday but don`t expect it to
affect terminals until the afternoon. Did add in a PROB30 at KTRI
as it now appears convection will be more widespread in the north
than previously thought. Otherwise, a bit of a persistence
forecast is in place, with fog expected again tonight at KTRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  73  92  74 /  40  20  50  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  72  91  73 /  30  10  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  72  91  72 /  20  10  30  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  69  88  69 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD