Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
710 FXUS64 KMRX 301714 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1214 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Windy conditions continue across the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills until sunrise. Gusts up to 45-55 mph. - Higher elevations, above 5,000 feet, may see a brief wintry mix through sunrise but impacts are forecast to be minimal to none. - Valley locations will see on and off rain showers through this afternoon. - Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as a wintry mix. Rain expected elsewhere. Perhaps a changeover to snow late Tuesday across higher elevations as moisture is exiting. Limited accumulations at most. - Dry Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances increasing once again Friday into next Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 723 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Just a quick update this morning to omit the previous HWO wording for wind and wintry mix across the mountains pre-daybreak. This also included allowing the Wind Advisory to expire at 7AM as originally planned. Based on various PWS data, wind gusts have largely fallen below 40mph across the mountains and foothills with the LLJ veering more westerly. Isolated gusts near advisory criteria may continue at the very highest peaks over the next hour or two before the jet begins departure, but again, that should be limited to the tallest peaks. Additional light rain possible through roughly mid-day as the surface front progresses through the region, trending drier through the afternoon into the evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Scattered rain showers are currently moving into the area. We have also received a few reports of sleet across the valley with the onset of precip. On and off showers will continue into the afternoon. Moisture then exits east by this evening. A light wintery mix is still anticipated through late morning across the highest elevations of the east TN mountains, above 5,000 feet, but with little to no impacts. Gusty winds from 40 to 50 mph will continue until sunrise across the east TN mountains and foothills and a Wind Advisory remains in effect. We dry out this evening behind the cold front and colder overnight temperatures are expected with lows in the low to mid 20s for most. Pleasant on Monday before our next system moves in. Dry and mostly sunny early in the day with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 by afternoon. Next system moves into the Ohio and Tennessee valley Monday night and Tuesday. Models still show jet dynamics to be quite strong with this system. The result is strong fronto-genetic forcing. The NAM remains the strongest with the low-level jet, with a 55kt 850mb jet in place on Monday night. LREF ensemble mean shows a 35kt jet, which is similar to deterministic GFS and ECMWF. We will continue to keep an eye on this system as it has the potential to produce another mountain wave event for the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills. Additionally, widespread rain is expected with 0.75 to around 1.00 inches for most places. The heaviest amounts are still expected across the Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Cold air advecting behind this system may produce wintry conditions for the mountains late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The best chances would be across the far northeast TN mountains and mountains of southwest VA. Based on current model data, very minor snow accumulations are possible, a few tenths of an inch or less. Minor ice accumulations of a few hundredths are also possible. Dry conditions then return for Wednesday and Thursday before another storm system moves in for Friday and Saturday. There is a northern and southern stream component to this system. The impacts will be determined on the amount of phasing occurs with these two systems. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 IFR and brief LIFR conditions continue for the next few hours this afternoon with light rain and drizzle at area terminals. This is due to overrunning air aloft resulting in low clouds and light rain development. A surface cold front and drier air should begin to clear move across the area and improve flight conditions between 22z and 0z this evening. Clearing conditions and northerly flow develop overnight and into Monday with VFR conditions prevailing late in the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 50 40 47 / 0 60 100 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 49 39 46 / 0 40 100 80 Oak Ridge, TN 25 47 37 44 / 0 40 100 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 49 35 44 / 0 10 90 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...JB