793
FXUS64 KMRX 011112
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
712 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Key Messages:

1. Cooler temperatures make a return for the upcoming week.

2. Isolated to scattered precipitation will favor along and west
of I-75 today and Tuesday. Shower and storm chances increase
areawide ahead of and along a cold front Wednesday and Thursday.

3. Drier weather with continued cool temperatures to end the week
post frontal passage.

Discussion:

Troughing overhead expected to broaden over the central and
eastern US under a newly formed closed low over the Mid-Atlantic
region. Lower heights aloft and increased cloudiness will kick-
start the cooling trend expected to begin today, lasting into
part of this week. Better moisture return and thus instability,
will primarily favor west of the I-75 corridor today and Tuesday.
Though, this will not exclude parts of the Southern Appalachians,
especially south of the GSMNP from seeing up to scattered showers
the aforementioned days. Like yesterday (Sunday), the valley will
mostly escape precipitation scot-free, so to speak. An uptick in
moisture and instability Tuesday, may bring an increased chance of
precipitation to the aforementioned area. Under further height
loss, high temperatures may be the coolest of the forecast period
on Tuesday.

Wednesday will prepare the area ahead of the cold frontal passage
expected Thursday into Friday. Broad troughing with impulses in
the flow, stronger SWly return flow, and instability, will bring
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms to the entire
forecast area. With return flow and increased moisture expected, a
gradual increase in temperatures are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Thursday will surely feel the most sticky, with dew
points in the mid to upper 60s.

Pattern change comes the end of the week, with a deepening trough
and associated closed low shifting south out of Canada. A cold
front essentially originating from Canada, will sweep through
sometime between Thursday and either late Thursday or early
Friday. If not much rain is seen in your area Wednesday, Thursday
may be better with increased chances for rain and higher QPF.
Still a bit too early to know if stronger storms will be of
concern with this FROPA. Time of day will play a role. Later on
Friday appears will be mostly dry, with much more comfortable
air. High temperatures aren`t impacted too much, but the
difference will be felt in the mornings with the lows. Drier air
will allow the temperatures to lower much more. The weekend looks
comparable to Friday, with steady temperatures and dry weather
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Fog/low-clouds have not developed at TRI as expected. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected near TYS and CHA this
afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, VFR conditions anticipated. Outside of convection,
light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  62  79  63 /  20  20  30  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  61  77  62 /  20  10  20  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  59  76  60 /  20  20  30  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  53  75  57 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DH