561
FXUS64 KMRX 021148
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
748 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 742 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Chances for showers and isolated storms will increase later
  today and through the weekend with locally heavy rainfall
  possible.

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A front currently arcs through the Ohio Valley crossing the
Mississippi and southern Plains and southward through central Texas.
Upper level ridging is being compressed as the shortwave associated
with the front moves eastward towards our area. Surface high
pressure remains nearly anchored just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Yesterday was our last dry day area-wide at least until next week.
Later this morning, the portion of the front arcing through the Ohio
Valley will cross into western Tennessee. The morning will start
dry, abnormally warm/humid. Chances for precipitation then begin to
increase as we get into the afternoon hours. The frontal system does
cross the area sometime later tonight into early tomorrow, however,
it will become stationary just to our south and not totally clear
the area until possibly late Sunday into early Monday. What this
means will be periods of wet weather for the entire area this
weekend. So far, a marginal risk for flash flooding is in place
except for a majority of southwest Virginia. With the highest FFG
across our southern areas, some places could have the capacity to
take a good amount of rainfall and not have much of a threat unless
training occurs with consecutive heavy showers/storms. Sunday still
appears will have the heaviest rainfall amounts as the low center
moves overhead as the system finally pushes out. Forecast PWATs for
Sunday at this time do show values nearing or edging above 2 inches,
which would be conducive for heavy rain makers.

As far as any storms, there isn`t a severe threat, but there could
be some embedded storms. Instability overall will be lacking with
poor lapse rates and shear. The greatest threat this weekend will be
periods of heavy rain with the possibility of localized flash
flooding. Grand total QPF amounts, though being fine tuned with each
new forecast, show the entire forecast area seeing at least 1 inch
of rain. Amounts of over 2 inches has been cut down as we`ve gotten
closer to the weekend, as well as any values above 3 inches.
Greatest amounts are forecast south of I-40 and along the higher
terrain of the Southern Appalachians.

Rain clears the region as we enter a new work week next week. A
secondary front will send everything out of here replacing it with
dry weather, northerly flow, and temperatures typically recorded in
early October. Surface high pressure sinks in from the north and
frontal systems until the end of the period are forecast to remain
well to our south and to the north, for now. However, there`s some
uncertainty with regard to the southern extent of moisture and if it
may bring light precipitation to our southern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
persistent mid to high level clouds around today. Moisture will
continue to increase tonight, with scattered showers and maybe
some isolated thunder near or just shortly before midnight
tonight. Included VCSH at all sites but confidence is too low to
include any mentions of prevailing rain or thunder at this time.
If a shower does directly impact a terminal later tonight, vis
categories could be briefly reduced.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  69  87  68 /  40  20  60  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  67  82  67 /  20  50  50  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  66  80  65 /  30  50  50  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  64  77  63 /  10  50  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS