539
FXUS64 KMRX 031817
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Dry weather today and Thursday before increasing precipitation
chances Thursday evening into Friday.

- Moderate chances for light snowfall across extreme northeast TN
and southwest Virginia early Friday morning. Minor impacts are
possible. Elsewhere, will get rain Thursday night into Friday.

- Very low probability of rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow or slight troughing will be
over the region through the weekend as a big, broad trough dominates
the Central and Eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will be
over the region through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday, a Gulf
Low moving eastward along the Gulf Coast will bring overrunning
moisture into the region. Rain is expected for most of the region
Thursday night into Friday. Temperature profiles support light snow
Thursday night into Friday morning for Southwest Virginia and
extreme Northeast Tennessee. Freezing rain probabilities are low in
SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee and model soundings show a deep
enough cold layer to support snow. By mid Friday morning temps will
warm enough for a changeover back to rain. The lower elevations may
get up to half an inch accumulation and the higher elevations may
get up to an inch of accumulation. Minor travel impacts will be
possible during the morning commute Friday but will be confined to
SW Virginia and extreme NE Tennessee. The Tri-Cities area may see a
few flakes but little to no accumulation is expected there. HREF
guidance through 12Z Friday have snow totals below one inch. The
Tennessee Valley won`t see any frozen precip with this system. HREF
guidance doesn`t cover this whole event yet so hopefully the next
forecast cycle will bring more confidence.

Rain chances will be very low for the weekend and into early next
week. One or more shortwaves may move through the pattern but
moisture will be limited. Rain or possibly even a brief snow will be
possible at some point but there is too much uncertainty to nail
down specifics at this time. Widespread travel impacts are unlikely
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Satellite shows that the MVFR cloud deck is starting to break up
especially near CHA. The cloud deck looks thickest near TYS, so it
could be a few more hours before VFR conditions return there.
Most of the low CIGs will be scattered out by late afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with mid clouds moving into
the region tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             30  49  37  48 /   0  20  90  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  29  46  35  45 /   0  10  80  80
Oak Ridge, TN                       27  46  34  43 /   0  10  80  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              26  43  31  42 /   0   0  70  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...McD