154
FXUS64 KMRX 142316 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
616 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Dry weather will continue through Saturday with a slight warming
  trend.

- Rain chances arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning, along
  with breezy conditions, especially for the mountains.

- Drier and cooler conditions arrive later on Sunday into Monday,
  followed by increasing rain chances by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Currently this afternoon, troughing is centered to our east with
surface high pressure remaining in place. This will continue the dry
pattern we`ve had in recent days with mild daytime temperatures and
another cool night tonight. On Saturday, ridging will lead to height
rises with surface high pressure shifting to the south. This
increase in heights and southerly flow will lead to warmer
temperatures than today. A system will also move northeast of our
area with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest Saturday
night. This will lead to a return of rain chances with instability
and dynamics remaining largely to the northeast, keeping convection
out of our area. However, WSW 850mb flow will reach 40 to 50 kts.
While the setup does not really favor mountain waves, synoptic winds
this strong will likely lead to advisory-level winds in the
mountains with breezy conditions area-wide. Behind the front, cooler
and drier conditions will return by Sunday.

High pressure will remain on Monday, but a weak initial system to
our west comes into view. This will lead to another return of low-
end rain chances on Tuesday. By the middle of the week, however,
deepening troughing will become cut off from the main flow with a
more robust system approaching from the west with southerly flow
pulling the frontal boundary back northward. A lot still remains
uncertain about the overall evolution and track of this system, but
a return of higher rain chances is expected during the second half
of the week regardless.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast this period. Winds will become gusty
from the SW tomorrow afternoon, starting around 16-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  42  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  43  71  59 /   0   0   0  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  42  69  58 /   0   0   0  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  41  66  56 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...DGS