137
FXUS64 KMRX 071048
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening
hours.

- Lots of moisture in the atmosphere means we could see periods of
  heavy rainfall and eventually flooding this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Warm and muggy conditions are likely through the entire week this
week, with daily rain chances each day. At the end of the week or
entering next weekend, ensemble clusters suggest a needed front
might bring the next break from the summer mugginess.

Before we can get to next weekend, we have to at least survive this
week. Main weather related hazard will be the potential for flash
flooding, primarily on Monday. A weak shortwave trough serving as
remnants from the main trough ejecting to our north will be coupled
with a weakening subtropical jet over the southeast today and
tomorrow. Remnant showers and a few thunderstorms will enter
southeastern Tennessee from AL/GA in the evening, but not currently
expecting that bout to pose a flash flood risk, though certainly the
environment itself is favorable.

By Monday though, PWATs Knoxville and south will be pushing close to
2" per Euro Ensemble/GFS/HRRR, near the records for early June for
this area. Euro EFI situational awareness charts detail this as an
atmospheric moisture equivalent of 1 in 10 year for this time of
year. The resulting skinny CAPE profiles and 15k foot 0C heights
spell for very efficient warm rain processes in showers and
thunderstorms that may form. As a result, there`s near consensus
across the CAMs for heavy rainfall, on the order of at least a
couple inches of rain. The drawback is since there`s no strong
forcing, this will again be a very scattered nature to the
thunderstorms. Also a good reminder to not take any individual CAM
run as gospel for where the bulls-eyes will be, just that there`s
potential for very quick and heavy rainfall in the thunderstorms on
Monday.

Tuesday we still have remnant troughing above us, and though forcing
is I think less on Tuesday than Monday, the available atmospheric
qualities still spark concern for flash flooding if thunderstorms
are able to fire during the day and evening.

After Tuesday we really lose a lot of the available forcing
mechanisms outside of the summer sun getting us to convective
temperatures or orographic induced lift. This also means we`re most
likely to hit near 90F Wednesday through Friday as lack of
thunderstorm starters equates to being able to hit forecast highs
without interference. The NBM still carries likelies through the
peak afternoon heating each day Wednesday through Friday, but
without any strong forcing, it`s hard to nail down at these time
steps with any confidence on true coverage each day. Should storms
fire though the flash flood risk will still be present.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The main aviation concern for the day will be increasing coverage
of showers and storms around CHA later this afternoon. TYS and TRI
are expected to remain dry with WSW winds of 10 kts or less with
clouds around or above 5,000 feet AGL. For CHA, reductions to MVFR
are possible throughout the afternoon with winds remaining from
the south. By early evening, rain coverage will decrease, but MVFR
is likely and has been introduced. It is unclear if this will
continue the whole night, but at least some periods of MVFR are
anticipated. Winds will be nearly calm at all 3 sites overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  69  79  68 /  70  70  90  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  69  81  68 /  10  50  80  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  68  79  67 /  10  60  80  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  66  86  66 /   0   0  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW