Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
402 FXUS65 KMSO 160841 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 241 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Low clouds should diminish this afternoon allowing for more seasonal temperatures - Scattered showers and gusty winds return on Friday afternoon/evening - Minor travel impacts are possible over mountain passes Sunday night/Monday due to snowfall Low clouds remain widespread early this morning across much of the Northern Rockies as the region sits on the backside of a departing upper trough. Dry air is currently eating away at the stratus over north- central Idaho but considerable uncertainty exists on how far east this clearing will reach this morning. Most model guidance suggests gradual clearing this afternoon as drier mid level air and increased northwest flow work top down to disrupt the stable clouds. There is a chance (30%) that the breakup of the stratus may be delayed until tonight or even Friday when northwest flow strengthens and cooler air aloft arrives. Temperatures today will hinge heavily on the extent of cloud cover, with some valley locations likely struggling to reach their full warming potential but not to the extent of the past several days. A disturbance and associated cold front will move across the region Friday afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers. Precipitation amounts will generally be light, with most valleys receiving less than 0.05 inch. The higher terrain of northwest Montana, particularly along the Continental Divide, could see locally higher totals of 0.10-0.20 inch. Snow levels will range from 5000 to 6000 feet, but impacts are expected to remain minor. Winds will also increase, with gusts of 20-30 mph producing choppy conditions on area lakes. Saturday will offer a brief reprieve under transient ridging, yielding a pleasant and seasonable fall day. By late Sunday morning and afternoon, remnants of an atmospheric river will accompany the next cold front. Widespread showers and gusty winds are anticipated with this system. Snow levels will start near 7000 feet before falling to 4500-5000 feet by Sunday night. Mountain passes (such as Lolo, Lookout, and Marias) may experience accumulating snow and minor travel impacts Sunday night into Monday morning as showery, upslope flow lingers. Mean snow amounts for Sunday/Monday currently stand from 2-4 inches for the previously mentioned passes with 4-8 inches across the higher terrain. Backcountry users should anticipate cold, raw, and snowy conditions to start the new week. && .AVIATION...Widespread low stratus continues early this morning from the Flathead Valley southward and will likely persist into this afternoon for many areas. Dry air is currently eating away at the stratus over north- central Idaho but considerable uncertainty exists on how far east this clearing will reach this morning. The most likely scenario is for gradual improvements this afternoon as mountain- top winds gradually increase and mid- level dry air begins to erode the stratus from the top down. There is a chance (30%) the low clouds linger into tonight, a further increase in northwest flow, cooling aloft, and the passage of a cold front on Friday will be sufficient to mix out the remaining stratus and improve conditions. Scattered showers and gusty winds will be the next aviation concern focused on Friday afternoon/evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$