Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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402
FXUS65 KMSO 160841
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
241 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Low clouds should diminish this afternoon allowing for more
   seasonal temperatures

-  Scattered showers and gusty winds return on Friday
   afternoon/evening

-  Minor travel impacts are possible over mountain passes Sunday
   night/Monday due to snowfall

Low clouds remain widespread early this morning across much of the Northern
Rockies as the region sits on the backside of a departing upper
trough. Dry air is currently eating away at the stratus over
north- central Idaho but considerable uncertainty exists on how
far east this clearing will reach this morning. Most model
guidance suggests gradual clearing this afternoon as drier mid
level air and increased northwest flow work top down to disrupt
the stable clouds. There is a chance (30%) that the breakup of
the stratus may be delayed until tonight or even Friday when
northwest flow strengthens and cooler air aloft arrives.
Temperatures today will hinge heavily on the extent of cloud
cover, with some valley locations likely struggling to reach their
full warming potential but not to the extent of the past several
days.

A disturbance and associated cold front will move across the region Friday
afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers. Precipitation
amounts will generally be light, with most valleys receiving less
than 0.05 inch. The higher terrain of northwest Montana,
particularly along the Continental Divide, could see locally
higher totals of 0.10-0.20 inch. Snow levels will range from 5000
to 6000 feet, but impacts are expected to remain minor. Winds will
also increase, with gusts of 20-30 mph producing choppy
conditions on area lakes.

Saturday will offer a brief reprieve under transient ridging, yielding a
pleasant and seasonable fall day. By late Sunday morning and afternoon,
remnants of an atmospheric river will accompany the next cold front.
Widespread showers and gusty winds are anticipated with this system. Snow
levels will start near 7000 feet before falling to 4500-5000 feet
by Sunday night. Mountain passes (such as Lolo, Lookout, and
Marias) may experience accumulating snow and minor travel impacts
Sunday night into Monday morning as showery, upslope flow lingers.
Mean snow amounts for Sunday/Monday currently stand from 2-4
inches for the previously mentioned passes with 4-8 inches across
the higher terrain. Backcountry users should anticipate cold, raw,
and snowy conditions to start the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread low stratus continues early this morning from the
Flathead Valley southward and will likely persist into this
afternoon for many areas. Dry air is currently eating away at the
stratus over north- central Idaho but considerable uncertainty
exists on how far east this clearing will reach this morning. The
most likely scenario is for gradual improvements this afternoon
as mountain- top winds gradually increase and mid- level dry air
begins to erode the stratus from the top down. There is a chance
(30%) the low clouds linger into tonight, a further increase in
northwest flow, cooling aloft, and the passage of a cold front on
Friday will be sufficient to mix out the remaining stratus and
improve conditions. Scattered showers and gusty winds will be the
next aviation concern focused on Friday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$