727
FXUS65 KMSO 071929
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
129 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.DISCUSSION...Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will continue
to bring pleasant and dry conditions into Saturday. Highs reach
into the 80s across western Montana and low 90s for the lowest
elevations of north-central Idaho.

A strong easterly gradient develops across western Montana
Saturday evening through early Sunday for a change of wind
direction. High- resolution guidance shows gusts over 25 mph (90%
probability) on the east side of Flathead Lake beginning just
before sunset on Saturday. Similar speeds appear likely (60-90%)
for other smaller lakes of northwest Montana such as Swan Lake
and lakes in the Glacier Region. If timing continues to show
impacts just before sunset then a lake wind advisory may be needed
for Flathead Lake but there is still uncertainty if the wind
shift will match up with evening recreation interests. Bottom
line, if you plan to be on the water Saturday evening, be prepared
for an abrupt increase in winds and choppy conditions.

A disorganized disturbance passes through Sunday afternoon into
Monday leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Classic
patterns for severe weather dont stand out as instability and
shear are marginal. Still keep in mind, given the dry low levels,
isolated gusty outflow winds cant be ruled out. Precipitable
water values reach near 0.8 inch, thus locally heavy rain will
fall with stronger storms as well. The best chances (35-45%) for
thunderstorms will be I-90 southward, closer to 20% across
northwest Montana.

Mostly dry conditions return Tuesday through Thursday of next week
under a westerly flow. Breezy winds will develop each afternoon
and evening with valleys seeing gusts of 20-30 mph. Higher gusts
of 30-40 mph will impact the higher terrain, especially in
northwest Montana.

Changes are still noted around June 16-18 with 75% of ensemble
clusters showing troughing over the western U.S. Significant
uncertainty remains with the timing and evolution of the trough
but a strong ridge leading to significant heat is not anticipated
through the middle of June.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will dominate into Saturday as ridging
continues over the Pacific Northwest. Westerly gusts of 15-20 kt
this afternoon will diminish around sunset. A north to east wind
gradient develops late Saturday across western Montana for a
change of wind direction with gusts of 20-30 kts at KGPI and KMSO
in the evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$